Trade Tidbits – October 3, 2025

chain grey

ON DECK:

  • Trade agencies stay up and running during shutdown as AGOA, Haiti trade preferences expire
  • No pharma or trucks 232 announcements yet
  • Trump-Lula meeting just needs a location; Greer says USMCA review will be more bilateral than trilateral; Trump pans China’s lack of soybean purchases as Bessent predicts breakthrough; EU may increase tariffs, cut quotas on steel; Taiwan rejects 50/50 chips split but floats investment help

DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym

Tidbits

…Then Shut It Down

Last we left things, we were a few hours from a government shutdown. Where we find things today is a few days into a government shutdown.

At the time of the last update, USTR had released and withdrew a shutdown plan. They re-released the plan and, instead of furloughing 40% of its staff, it’s keeping everyone on board. USTR Jamieson Greer said his agency would be “pretty much…fully functioning” during a shutdown (just spit-balling, but I would guess the “pretty much” caveat involves no travel). Since we’re at it, I’ll reup the shutdown plans for the Commerce Department and Department of Homeland Security (including CBP).

It’s worth noting that October 1 also brought the lapsing of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the HOPE/HELP trade preferences for Haiti. An anonymous White House official said that the Trump Administration supports a one-year extension of AGOA, while Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) introduced S. 2958, which would extend AGOA for…some amount of time. We don’t know because the bill text hasn’t posted due to the shutdown and there’s no statement on Kennedy’s website. He previously introduced a bill to extend it through 2045. Top Ways and Means Democrats released a statement lamenting the lapsing of AGOA.

Marco

So yeah. We were supposed to get the Section 232 pharmaceutical and chip actions by October 1. As I check my calendar, it’s October 3. I’m told that October 3 comes after October 1. An anonymous White House official told Politico that the pharmaceutical tariffs are on pause pending some investment announcements. No word on why the trucks holdup. I guess we’re in a holding pattern until we aren’t.

News from the Rest of the World

  • Australia: Trade Minister Don Farrell said his country supports a push to crack down on EV overcapacity.
  • Brazil: The U.S. and Brazil (per Firefox’s translate feature) are working towards a meeting between Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump, but a location is proving elusive due to their travel schedules. The upcoming ASEAN summit in Malaysia on October 26 might fit the bill.
  • Cambodia: A bipartisan Congressional delegation visited Cambodia last week.
  • Canada: When asked about the status of talks on Section 232 tariffs, Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc told reporters, “We’re making progress. We’re not there yet.” He added that Section 232 talks will remain separate from the USMCA review. USTR Jamieson Greer told a group that the USMCA review would be more bilateral than trilateral due to specific issues with each individual country. Energy Minister Tim Hodgson released a statement decrying the Section 232 lumber tariffs.
  • China: President Trump truthed that China isn’t buying U.S. soybeans for “‘negotiating’ reasons” and that soybeans would be a “major topic of discussion” in four weeks when he meets with President Xi Jinping. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects a “pretty big breakthrough” in the next round of U.S.-China talks. He added, “It’s unfortunate the Chinese leadership has decided to use the American farmers, soybean farmers, in particular, as a hostage or pawn in the trade negotiations.” USTR Greer told a group that 55% tariffs on China are a “good status quo.” He also said said China “overplayed their hand” on rare earth magnets because they impacted the whole world, adding that G7 counterparts “didn’t complain to me about the president’s tariffs. They complained about the Chinese controls on rare earth magnets.”
  • The EU: The EU is circulating a draft proposal to raise steel tariffs to 50% and cut steel import quotas in half.
  • India: Russian oil imports fell from 1.72 million barrels/day in August to 1.61 million barrels/day in September. An anonymous government source told local media that talks with the U.S. are continuing virtually.
  • Malaysia: The government released a 15-point plan to address steel overcapacity and decarbonization. The local furniture industry is asking the government for aid in the wake of the Section 232 lumber tariff announcement.
  • Mexico: USTR Greer told a group that the USMCA review would be more bilateral than trilateral due to specific issues with each individual country.
  • New Zealand: Lumber producers warned of “significant financial repercussions” of the Section 232 lumber tariffs, while others breathed a sigh of relief because they thought it’d be worse. Trade Minister Todd McClay warned against foreign film tariffs, telling press, “They’ll never touch our precioussss” “Films are still going to be made here out
    of the US, respective of what happens there.”
  • South Korea: The Ministry of Economy and Finance and Treasury Department held foreign exchange talks, agreeing to the public disclosure of reserves data, forward positions, and currency composition of reserves. Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo told a forum that the government is stressing to the U.S. that South Korea cannot agree to the same investment plan as Japan.
  • Taiwan: Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun led a delegation to the U.S. for talks from September 25-29. She said her side is evaluating credit guarantees for companies expanding U.S. investment as part of negotiations. They would need land, visa, and regulatory help from the U.S. She also told reporters that they will not agree to a deal in which 50% of chip production is in the U.S.
  • The UK: New Section 232 tariff announcements are poking/could poke holes in the U.S.-UK deal. The U.S. is weighing easing tariffs on Scotch.

Quick Hits

  • President Donald Trump said he’d direct some tariff revenue to relief for farmers
  • Plaintiffs are asking the Supreme Court to allow more time for oral arguments on the IEEPA tariffs
  • Tariffs have revived previously-dormant bilateral free trade agreement negotiations
  • USTR Jamieson Greer told Fox Business that move tariffs would follow an investigation (though he didn’t specify whether it’d be a USTR or Commerce investigation)
  • The WSJ released a video explainer on the logic behind a movie tariff
  • The African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of countries preparing a proposal on the WTO e-commerce moratorium
  • The U.S. said it would not consider the recent WTO fisheries agreement as a basis for advancing a successor agreement on subsidies for overfishing and overcapacity

Tarif-Fone

Let me know if I missed anything. It’s not unpossible. IEEPA tariffs struck down by courts but in place pending appeal are italicized. There are lawsuits pending on some of the other IEEPA actions, but those have separate circumstances and arguments and may not be struck down themselves. I’m keeping the due date for the trucks and pharma 232s until we have something firm.

Trade Actions in Effect

As of

Who

What

Rate

Authority

2/4/25

China

All imports

20% (10% from 2/4/25-3/3/25)

IEEPA

3/4/25

Canada

Non-USMCA-compliant imports

35% (25% from 3/4/25-7/31/25)

IEEPA

3/4/25

Mexico

Non-USMCA-compliant imports

25%

IEEPA

3/12/25

All countries

Steel products and derivatives

50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25)

Section 232

3/12/25

All countries

Aluminum products and derivatives

50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25)

Section 232

4/2/25

Countries importing Venezuelan oil (currently none)

All imports

25%

IEEPA

4/3/25

All countries

Autos

25%

Section 232

4/4/25

All countries

Beer and empty aluminum cans

25%

Section 232

4/5/25

Countries not on this list (minus Canada, China, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Belarus)

Universal tariff

10%

IEEPA

4/9/25

China

Reciprocal tariff

10% (was 125% from 4/10/25-5/3/25; was 84% on 4/9/25)

IEEPA

5/2/25

China, Hong Kong

No more de minimis

N/A

IEEPA

5/3/25

All countries

Auto parts

25%

Section 232

6/23/25

All countries

Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances)

50% (25% for UK)

Section 232

8/1/25

All countries

Copper, scrap copper, and derivative products

50%

Section 232

8/6/25

Brazil

Additional tariff

40%

IEEPA

8/7/25

72 countries

Reciprocal tariff

Variable

IEEPA

8/18/25

All countries

Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives

50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content

Section 232

Effective 8/27/25

India

Russian oil tariff

25%

IEEPA

Effective 8/29/25

All countries

Suspending de minimis

N/A

IEEPA

9/15/25 to 9/29/25

All countries

Inclusion request window for Section 232 steel and aluminum derivatives opens

25%

Section 232

 

 

Coming Attractions

 

Status

Who

What

Rate

Authority

 

10/1/25

All countries

Inclusion request window for Section 232 auto parts opens

25%

Section 232

 

Effective 10/14/25

All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK)

Timber, lumber, and derivative products

10% or 25%, depending on product

Section 232

 

Effective 10/1/25(?)

All countries (probably)

Pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients

100% unless construction ongoing

Section 232

 

Effective 10/1/25(?)

All countries (probably)

Trucks

25%

Section 232

 

Effective 10/14/25

Shipping companies

Ships servicing U.S. ports

Various fees

Section 301

 

Comments due 10/17/25 (action due 5/30/26)

All countries

Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices  

TBD

Section 232

 

Comments due 10/17/25 (action due 5/30/26)

All countries

Robotics and Industrial Machinery

TBD

Section 232

 

Due 10/22/25 or 1/20/26 (comments due 5/16/25)

All countries (probably)

Processed critical minerals and derivative products

TBD

Section 232

 

Due 10/28/25

All countries

Inclusions process for Section 232 copper

 

 

 

Effective 11/10/25

China

Reciprocal tariff

34%

IEEPA

 

Expires 11/29/25

China

Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions

7.5% or 25%

Section 301

 

Due 12/10/25 (hearing was 3/11/25)

China

Semiconductors

TBD

Section 301

 

Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25)

All countries (probably)

Pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients

TBD

Section 232

 

Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25)

All countries (probably)

Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment

TBD

Section 232

 

Effective 1/1/26

All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK)

Timber, lumber, and derivative products

10%, 30%, or 50% depending on product

Section 232

 

Due 1/20/26 (comments due 5/16/25)

All countries (probably)

Trucks

TBD

Section 232

 

Due 1/26/26 (comments due 6/3/25)

All countries (probably)

Commercial Aircraft and Jet Engines

TBD

Section 232

 

Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25)

All countries (probably)

Polysilicon and its Derivatives

TBD

Section 232

 

Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25)

All countries (probably)

Unmanned Aircraft Systems and Their Parts and Components

TBD

Section 232

 

Due 5/10/26 (comments due 9/9/25)

All countries

Wind Turbines

TBD

Section 232

 

Due 7/15/26

Brazil

Digital Trade and Electronic Payment Services; Unfair, Preferential Tariffs; Anti-Corruption Enforcement; Intellectual Property Protection; Ethanol Market Access; and Illegal Deforestation

TBD

Section 301

 

TBD (no current deadline)

Canada

USMCA-compliant imports

25%

IEEPA

 

TBD (no current deadline)

Mexico

USMCA-compliant imports

25%

IEEPA

 

TBD

All countries (probably)

Movies

100%

TBD (maybe Section 232)

 

 

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