ON DECK
- Latest on Iran-related supply chain disruptions
- USTR announces Section 301 tariffs on Brazil
- Greer says forced labor 301 soon, excess capacity 301 not so much
- Congress may pass bill to allow tariffs on Russian oil and natural gas buyers
- Greer says modest outcomes expected in September Trump-Xi meeting; EU gives U.S. list of potential tariff cuts; Greer says Swiss talks heading in good direction
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
Erratum
Need to correct an oopsie in last week’s newsletter. For some reason, I said that the new Section 232 investigation covered anthracite coal exports, which is definitely not the case. It’s imports. It’s always imports. Apologies if that caused any confusion!
Iran Sitrep
Oil is heading back up as tensions escalate. WTI is sitting at $81/barrel ($71 last week). Brent is at $87/barrel ($75 last week). But gasoline prices jumped a touch to $3.87 ($3.84 last week), with diesel down to $5.04 ($4.83 last week). The Trump Administration may renew its Jones Act waiver for fuel to provide some price relief, but China looms large in the oil price conversation too.
The ceasefire very much remains over. The U.S. launched attacks for six straight days, and we’ll find out this afternoon if today is day seven. The U.S. also resumed its blockade of Iranian ports and coasts, effective at 4:00pm Eastern on Tuesday, disabling an unladen oil tanker attempting to access a port on Wednesday. The Treasury Department also tightened its sanctions.
Iran, meanwhile, attacked water and power plants in Kuwait as more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz werestruck. This has slowed transits back to a trickle. Qatar is trying to negotiate a “median lane” between Iran and Oman. President Donald Trump floated taking over the strait and charging a 20% fee but backed off. Iran is reportedly telling the Houthis to close the Red Sea if Iran’s power network is struck. India told shippers not to send Indian national seafarers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Águas de Março, Tarifas de Julho
One of the last things I do before sending the newsletter (aside from praying to the Trade Tidbits gods that someone won’t announce something important immediately after I hit send) is update the Coming Attractions. Last week, that included updating the timeline for the Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s Festivus List of irritants since the hearing had happened on July 6 and 7. And I realized that the one-year deadline for an announcement was just 8 days later on Wednesday, July 15. I was wondering if that was actually correct, but I figured we’d find out soon enough if it was. And we did indeed get our answer this week.
In a Wednesday interview with Bloomberg TV, USTR Greer confirmed the decision would come down that day, noting that there were “still a lot of gaps” between the two sides that would necessitate “some kind of action.” And then we waited.
Finally, at 11:05pm(ish), a press release hit the inboxes with the determination (Federal Register notice here). It will be a 25% tariff, as was initially proposed, with certain exemptions detailed in Annex I and II. The tariff will be effective at 12:01am Eastern on Wednesday, July 22. I haven’t looked into this myself (I tend to save my rabbit holes for Section 232 inclusions and exclusions), but reporting suggests that the exemptions were expanded from their previous form under the IEEPA regime.
Ahead of the Wednesday deadline, the U.S. and Brazil held their fifth high-level meeting Tuesday “in the late afternoon” (per Google Translate). USTR Jamieson Greer participated from the U.S. side. The Brazilians pressed the “unfair nature” of the Section 301 tariffs on Brazil, whether Festivus or forced labor.
But the Brazilians were not optimistic on the outcome, with an anonymous official telling Reuters, “They want the impossible.” The official elaborated that the U.S. wants exclusive lower tariffs, which are impermissible under Brazilian law. Business groups on both sides of the Equator also suggested hey guys maybe we do a two-step deal that avoids tariffs? But that was, obviously, also a no.
In the wake of the announcement, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said (via X’s translate function) that July 15 would be a “lamentable milestone” in the history of U.S.-Brazil relations. He added that his country would “immediately initiate the procedures to activate the instruments provided for in the Reciprocity Law” and resume a WTO case that challenged the IEEPA tariffs and Section 301 case. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said the Reciprocity Law would be invoked “at the appropriate time.”
Anonymous sources in Brazil told Reuters that the country is readying a “tough” response. One floated targeting “U.S. intellectual property rights and audiovisual sector interests” as opposed to imports. It seems like those could take the form of suspending patents for pharmaceuticals and ag seeds in the case of the former and curbing dividend and royalty remittances in the case of the latter. Brazilian officials reportedly view these types of measures as less disruptive than tariffs on imports, but, uhh…well I guess we’ll see about that. It’s worth noting that these types of measures had been floated in July.
USTR reiterated on X some of the reasons for the tariffs, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio took things a little farther, saying that Brazil hadn’t negotiated in good faith and that “President Lula has put his own ego ahead of making a deal for the welfare of the Brazilian people, and these tariffs are the price for that.” Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira called the comments “unacceptable and offensive” and “crude and arrogant.” We’ll see if/how the temperature lowers from here, especially in light of next week’s looming (in theory) decision on the Section 301 forced labor investigation.
Speaking of Which
During the aforementioned Bloomberg TV interview, USTR Jamieson Greer gave some insights on the timing of the Section 301 forced labor and excess capacity investigations that will (in theory) replace the IEEPA tariffs. On the former, he said the U.S. “can take action…fairly quickly on that, within the next few weeks” (5:58). Note that the Section 122 tariffs expire on July 24. Note further that in the Brazil Section 301 in the previous section, USTR was able to get from the public hearing to the tariff announcement in a week. In other words, moving from hearing to tariff quickly is possible. As to the latter, he said that the investigations were taking “a little longer” because it’s a “quite complex project” with a lot of public comments to take into account.
A Cram, Post-Graham
In the wake of the untimely passing of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), there is a push to pass a new version of his Russia sanctions bill, which includes tariff authorities. Er well, technically the push predated his death and may have received a White House blessing right before. The new version, S. 5025, was introduced by Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC), the late Senator’s sister who was appointed as a caretaker until a special election can take place. It would allow the President to impose a 100% tariff on the top five purchasers of Russian oil and natural gas (down from 500% in the original version). Those are China, India, Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan and China, France, Japan, Hungary and Belgium respectively. Crucially, it has 61 cosponsors – a veto-proof majority. President Donald Trump has floated adding Iran to it somehow too. However, the top Democrats on the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committees, Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) respectively, don’t sound too keen on giving the (or at least this) President “unilateral tariff power.”
News from the Rest of the World
- Canada: USTR Jamieson Greer cautioned against mistaking the frequency of interactions with Canada as progress, saying, “I’ve given lots of proposals to the Canadians on things that could be done immediately to put us in a better position.” He added, “I’m sure we can put together something that makes sense to get us over the hump.” Canada’s Advisory Committee on Canada-U.S. Economic Relations met this week, and Mexico’s Foreign Minister is visiting Canada today. The U.S. and Canada struck a deal to open the Gordie Howe International Bridge on July 27, with the two sides sharing net toll profits. President Donald Trump truthed that it was a “MUCH BETTER DEAL,” and Prime Minister Mark Carney called it a “good deal.” Buuut it’s also possible there are some kinks to iron out in the understanding of the deal, so let’s not say that July 27 is completely set in stone yet.
- China: China says that the U.S. let an Executive Order on Hong Kong normalization expire. USTR Greer told Bloomberg TV to expect modest outcomes in the upcoming September summit between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, it will have a goal of “stock-taking, confirming the relationship, making sure China is complying with what it has agreed to do.” He also called China’s rare earth compliance “not perfect.” Bloomberg also reports that the Trump Administration is finding evidence of China cheating on its end of the trade deal but is conflicted on how to address it. The U.S. Coast Guard is moving ships previously deployed in the Middle East to Singapore and the Philippines to counter Chinse aggression in the South China Sea. Reps. John Moolenaar (R-MI), the Chair of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, and George Whitesides (D-CA) sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick urging him not to authorize U.S. purchases of Chinese memory chips.
- The EU: The EU has reportedly given the U.S. a list of €150 billion in imports that it’d like to see tariff cuts under the U.S.-EU trade deal. Per Euronews, which saw the list, it includes cheese, olive oil, wine and spirits, pasta, medical devices, machinery, and other items. Politico took stock of the promises made by both sides in the trade deal. USTR Greer said in an interview that France and others are in talks to avoid a Section 301 investigation into pharmaceutical pricing like the recent one announced against Germany. Today, the EU may decide to extend its carbon pricing to all international flights, which could add another irritant with the U.S. (and China). The EU’s new steel import restrictions are upsetting other countries. The EU is standing up a crisis team to respond to potential rare earths restrictions by China.
- India: Reuters reported that India is holding out for a better deal from the U.S., including its demand that it get a better tariff rate than its peers. An anonymous U.S. source said India needs to earn that rate through concessions. Maybe I missed something, but I didn’t see anything super new in there. Despite that, the article prompted aggressive statements from Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor insisting that talks remain on track. The Commerce Ministry issued a notification banning the importation of goods made with forced labor. The Indian government identified over 100 products to target for its import substitution regime.
- Indonesia: A member of Indonesia’s House of Representatives is asking the government to conduct a thorough review of the U.S.-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) before ratifying it, including its viability in light of the end of the IEEPA tariffs.
- Mexico: USTR Greer told the Aspen Institute Security Forum that Mexico has been “quite pragmatic” in USMCA discussions. He added that the trade deficit “really is a challenge,” and he has a mandate from President Trump “to find a way in whatever deal we make with Mexico to have…tariffs or quotas or whatever it is to try to control that.” He further added that he wants those measures to be done in a way that “doesn’t disrupt supply chains unnecessarily, but we do want to incentivize supply chains moving” north to the U.S. Mexico’s Foreign Minister is visiting Canada today. Mexico’s new Ambassador to Mexico sat down with Politico for an interview.
- South Korea: The Department of War is reportedly asking South Korean shipbuilders about their capacity to build naval vessels.
- Switzerland: USTR Greer told Bloomberg TV that talks with Switzerland are going in a “positive direction,” though he also cautioned that he couldn’t guarantee a positive outcome. He noted in particular Swiss investments in the U.S. and a trade surplus in goods with the Swiss over the last 6-7 months.
- The UAE: The Commerce Department eased export controls for the UAE, which could lead to increased AI exports.
Quick Hits
- The Senate Finance Committee rescheduled its annual hearing with USTR Jamieson Greer for Wednesday – it was originally scheduled for April 23 but was postponed due to voting that ran until nearly 4am
- The Small Business Administration is hosting a roundtable next Wednesday focused on barriers small businesses face in selling into China
- The Senate Finance Committee favorably reported five nominees to the International Trade Commission (ITC): Brett Doyle (21-6), David Foley (21-6), Peter-Anthony Pappas (21-6), Bartholomew Thanhauser (27-0), and Samuel Negatu (25-2)
- The House Foreign Affairs Committee held a hearing with Commerce Undersecretary for Industry and Security Jeffrey Kessler
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made an appearance at the Senate Republican lunch this week, though there were no details on what was discussed
- The Justice Department announced that its Trade Fraud Task Force surpassed $1 billion in civil and criminal recoveries, penalties, forfeitures, and publicly charged losses since its launch in August 2025
- A judge for the Court of International Trade (CIT) said he direct CBP to “reliquidate certain finally liquidated entries” in each of the pending 3,700 refund cases
- In a new filing with the Court of International Trade (CIT), CBP reported that $121.75 billion in IEEPA tariff refunds have been accepted for processing and, of that, $86.3 billion have been completed and sent to the Treasury Department for disbursement
- The International Trade Commission (ITC) launched a Section 202 safeguard investigation into imports of lamb meat after receiving a request from USTR, who in turn, had received a request from the American Sheep Industry Association
- CBP released guidance on the smelt and cast reporting requirements for the Section 232 copper tariffs
- Last week’s Presidential Proclamation on the Section 232 investigation into commercial aircraft, jet engines, and aircraft parts was published in the Federal Register
- India is questioning the WTO Secretariat’s role in the implementation of the interim plurilateral Electronic Commerce Agreement
What’s the Dealies, Yo?
This is my stab at building a list of trade deals (specifically Frameworks, Agreements on Free Trade, and a few others with one-off nomenclatures). If I missed something, please let me know! I’ll add that the Council on Foreign Relations also has a tracker.
Country | Type | Date |
Argentina | 2/5/26 | |
Bangladesh | 2/9/26 | |
Cambodia | 10/26/25 | |
Ecuador | 3/13/26 | |
El Salvador | 1/29/26 | |
The EU | 8/21/25 | |
Guatemala | 1/30/26 | |
India | 2/6/26 | |
Indonesia | 2/19/26 | |
Japan | 9/4/25 | |
Malaysia | 10/26/25 | |
North Macedonia | 2/12/26 | |
South Korea | 11/13/25 | |
Switzerland/ Liechtenstein | 11/14/25 | |
Taiwan | 2/12/26 | |
Thailand | 10/26/25 | |
The Philippines | 7/22/25 | |
The UK | 6/16/25 | |
Vietnam | 10/26/25 |
Tarif-Fone
If I missed something or got something wrong, please let me know. It’s not unpossible. Italicizing the Section 122 tariffs pending more information.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
1/15/26 | All countries | Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in certain applications | 25% | |
2/24/26 | All countries | 10% (but maybe 15% at some point) | ||
4/6/26 | All countries | |||
6/8/26 | All countries | |||
