ON DECK
- Latest on Iran-related supply chain disruptions
- Trump signs proclamation on 232 polysilicon
- Commerce weighs steel, aluminum, copper inclusions
- U.S., Canada chat again ahead of August 19 deadline
- Another 301 forced labor lawsuit
- China retaliates against FCC action as FCC weighs more; USTR has EU digital 301 drafted but is holding off for now; South Korea’s Industry Minister expects 301 excess capacity to be announced at end of August; Commerce corrects UK’s pharmaceutical tariff rate
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
Iran Sitrep
Oil was down compared to last week. WTI is sitting at $78/barrel ($85 last week). Brent is at $83/barrel ($90 last week). Gasoline prices were down to $4.01 ($4.09 last week), while diesel was relatively flat at $5.30 ($5.31 last week).
Iran and Oman have an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran is seeking to ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transits, as well as compensation from hostile countries. So we’ll see if this holds together. The Trump Administration is expected to extend the Jones Act waiver for energy, while the oil industry is working to prevent a curb or ban on oil exports.
Putting the Spicy in Polysilicon
There were some rumblings on Wednesday that we may be getting some action on the Section 232 polysilicon investigation, and then yesterday we got it. You can read the Proclamation here and Fact Sheet here.
The Proclamation calls for a price floor (they call it a minimum import price, or MIP) and 15% tariff for products in Annex I and Annex II. These take effect at 12:01am Eastern on December 4, 2026. The MIP regime requires documentation of the first arm’s-length sale. As for the tariff, imports from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland, or Taiwan will be trued up to 15% (ie anything with a baseline tariff below 15% will be trued up to 15% and anything with a baseline tariff above 15% faces no additional tariff). Imports from the UK get a true-up to 10%.
The Commerce Department is also tasked with establishing a program to lower tariff rates for companies that make investments to produce raw polysilicon, ingots, wafers, and cells in the U.S. One thing I noticed is that tariff break isn’t just for the products under Annex I and Annex II but also “necessary production equipment.” I don’t *recall* seeing something like this in the past, though it’s definitely possible I’m just now noticing it in light of the approaching deadline for the Section 232 investigation on robotics and industrial machinery.
Thrivin’ and Derivin’
We have another potential round of Section 232 steel, aluminum, and copper derivative tariffs coming down the pike. According to a Federal Register notice, the Commerce Department is considering imposing the tariffs on 14 downstream products. Interested parties can comment by August 27.
These are the first proposed inclusions after Commerce Old Yeller’d the inclusions process in April. We don’t know how these 14 products came to be chosen (when they got rid of the process, I noted that, for whatever its faults, it did provide a window into who requested and why). But the public comment is a step toward transparency, to the extent anyone comments in support. Reminder that it sounds like Commerce is working on a revamped process for next year. Until then, it appears that this is the regime for inclusions.
Shady Nasty’s? Shadynasty’s.
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Chief Trade Negotiator Janice Charette braved jet lag to head to DC again this week as the August 19 Section 338 deadline moves closer. They met with Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-SD) and Bill Hagerty (R-TN), as well as the head of the National Association of Manufacturers. But those were warm-ups to the main event, a meeting with USTR Jamieson Greer.
There was no statement from USTR, but Minister LeBlanc posted on X that the meeting was “constructive and detailed.” The meeting also reportedly lasted an hour and a half, even though it was only scheduled for 30 minutes. Afterwards, he and Ms. Charette debriefed the Advisory Committee on Canada–U.S. Economic Relations, as well as provincial and territorial trade ministers.
The Globe and Mail had a newsy article on the state of negotiations ahead of the visit. The outlet said that Minister LeBlanc and Ms. Charette would be working to revive a proposal for tariff-rate quotas on Canadian exports of steel and aluminum to the U.S. This had been under discussion before talks went off the rails in October. Other notable nuggets from the article include:
- Three anonymous sources (including two in the Canadian government) saying that the Section 338 tariff threat lit a fire under the Canadians.
- President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney have been talking directly, though there were no further details on how often, etc.
- Autos have not come up yet.
- The U.S. has about two dozen other demands. USTR Greer sent Canada a list of issues in June but, per three anonymous sources (including one in the Canadian government) gave a list of 10 more in the meeting last week.
PM Carney did confirm with reporters his personal involvement in talks, saying he and President Trump talked last week. He also said that he is “not interested in a very targeted deal…We’re interested in a more comprehensive global deal.” Now, it’s fair to consider hyperventilating at the prospect of getting that by August 19. Luckily, PM Carney also wondered this aloud: “Will we get all that by the 19th of August? We’ll see. But we want to have pathways in order to get that.” So I guess there’s your landing zone.
Despite the private contact between the two leaders, the public comments remain…touchy. President Trump told a crowd in Las Vegas, “Canada’s nasty. They are. They’re nasty…I love the people, but they’re nasty. Nasty leadership.” When asked about the comment, PM Carney said, “This is a tough negotiation…We can change the adjective. You can say nasty.”
Also on the USMCA front, a bright, young Representative named Rudy Yakym (R-IN) led a letter to USTR Greer signed by 167 other House Republicans in support of an extension of USMCA but only after improvements, listing four buckets of issues.
Fresh Lawsuit on the Boooard
The Court of International Trade (CIT) is getting tariff lawsuits at a clip that rivals the brisket operation of a Buc-ee’s. 25 Democratic Attorneys General became the latest to file suit against the Section 301 forced labor tariffs, arguing they are “a pretext to continue its illegal tariff scheme.” The CIT is moving quickly, assigning the judges to hear that case, as well as the ones filed by Learning Resources and Burlap and Barrel, after everyone agreed to consolidate them.
The CIT also heard arguments this week in a case seeking a class action for refunds.
And CBP gave another update to the CIT on its refund process, saying that it has completed $100 billion of $128.68 billion accepted refund requests. With those refunds beginning showing up in earnings calls, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) sent letters to Apple, Amazon, Energizer, Motorola, Nike, Target, and Walmart asking about their refunds and what they’re intending to do with them.
News from the Rest of the World
- Australia: The National Foreign Trade Council voiced disappointment in an Australian proposal that would require large digital platforms to have commercial deals with local media or face a 2.5% tax.
- Brazil: The State Department revoked the visa of Ambassador to the U.S. Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti.
- China: China tightened drone export controls and sanctioned companies in retaliation for recent Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) import restrictions and the expansion of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) Entity List. And the FCC is weighing even more actions, banning Chinese data center component imports. China bought a bunch of soybeans. It’s also worried that U.S. AI models could be offensive weapons. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden welcomed the expansion of the UFLPA Entity List.
- The EU: Politico reports that USTR has a Section 301 investigation of the EU’s digital policies tanned, rested, and ready, it just hasn’t launched it yet over concerns it could jeopardize the U.S.-EU trade deal. The EU, meanwhile, is trying to focus on technical talks rather than responding to every public pronouncement, with the thinking that it gives them more room to maneuver. Low river levels on the Rhine and Danube are hurting exports.
- India: A Parliamentary Standing Committee on Commerce voiced support for the swift conclusion of a U.S.-India deal, while securing “complete exemption” of products like generic medicines, critical minerals, and smartphones from tariffs.
- Malaysia: Trade Minister Johari Ghani told local media he hasn’t received any confirmation from Chinese automaker BYD as to whether or not they’ll invest in Malaysia.
- Mexico: Mexico pledged to beef up security in the state of Michoacan after the U.S. suspended operations due to recent violent incidents, which threatens avocado imports.
- South Korea: Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan told a press forum that he expects the Section 301 excess capacity investigation to be announced by the end of August. Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo traveled to the U.S. yet again, this time to the National Governors Association meeting in Oklahoma City. Minister Kim also told the press forum that U.S. lawmakers misunderstand what Coupang is.
- Thailand: Thailand is resisting U.S. demands to allow satellite telecoms companies that don’t have a Thai partner to operate.
- The UK: The Commerce Department corrected the UK’s tariff rate under the Section 232 pharmaceutical tariffs that took effect last week (CSMS notice here).
Quick Hits
- President Donald Trump signed a proclamation creating a four-year tariff-rate quota for quartz surface products
- Peter-Anthony Pappas was sworn in as a Commissioner on the International Trade Commission
- The Panama Canal is imposing draft limits amid low water levels
- The Senate passed 86-11 H.R. 5334, a House bill that became the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, in part after Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) secured a commitment from USTR Jamieson Greer that countries that drop out of the top 5 purchasers of Russian oil would have tariffs removed
- The Senate advanced on a procedural motion a government spending bill that would extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and Haiti trade preference programs through December 31, 2028
- Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT) introduced S. 5265, the Use Sovereignty to Reduce Rx Act, which would establish a Chief Pharmaceutical Negotiator at USTR to identify foreign price controls on drugs innovated in the U.S.
- Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) introduced S. 5315, the Trade Deficit Elimination Act, which would create a Congressional framework to authorize tariffs to address trade deficits
- Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) introduced H.R. 9977, the Homebuilding Materials Tariff Relief Act, which would remove tariffs (except those related to trade remedies, safeguards, and dispute settlement) for products related to homebuilding
- Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) introduced S. 5339, the Back-to-School Supplies Affordability Act, which would exempt school supplies and educational materials from tariffs
What’s the Dealies, Yo?
This is my stab at building a list of trade deals (specifically Frameworks, Agreements on Free Trade, and a few others with one-off nomenclatures). If I missed something, please let me know! I’ll add that the Council on Foreign Relations also has a tracker.
Country | Type | Date |
Argentina | 2/5/26 | |
Bangladesh | 2/9/26 | |
Cambodia | 10/26/25 | |
Ecuador | 3/13/26 | |
El Salvador | 1/29/26 | |
The EU | 8/21/25 | |
Guatemala | 1/30/26 | |
India | 2/6/26 | |
Indonesia | 2/19/26 | |
Japan | 9/4/25 | |
Malaysia | 10/26/25 | |
North Macedonia | 2/12/26 | |
South Korea | 11/13/25 | |
Switzerland/ Liechtenstein | 11/14/25 | |
Taiwan | 2/12/26 | |
Thailand | 10/26/25 | |
The Philippines | 7/22/25 | |
The UK | 6/16/25 | |
Vietnam | 10/26/25 |
Tarif-Fone
If I missed something or got something wrong, please let me know. It’s not unpossible. Italicizing the Section 122 tariffs pending more information.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
1/15/26 | All countries | Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in certain applications | 25% | |
4/6/26 | All countries | |||
6/8/26 | All countries | |||
7/22/26 | Brazil | 25% | ||
7/24/26 | 60 countries (list here) | 10% or 12.5%, depending on the country | ||
7/31/26 | 100% (generally) | |||
Coming Attractions | |||
Date | Event | What | Other Notes |
7/11/26 | Action due | Section 232 investigation into Unmanned Aircraft Systems and Their Parts and Components | |
8/8/26 | Action due | Section 232 investigation into Wind Turbines | |
8/10/26 | Comments due | Section 301 investigation into Germany’s persistent underpayment for innovative pharmaceutical products | Hearing 9/22/26 |
8/19/26 | Implementation | 50% Section 338 tariff on Canada due to auto/alcohol/dairy issues |
|
8/22/26 | Request window closes | Section 301 China tariff Lists 2, 3, 4a four-year review |
|
8/27/26 | Comments due | Additions to the Section 232 steel, aluminum, and copper derivatives tariffs |
|
8/28/26 | Action due | Section 232 investigation into Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices | |
8/28/26 | Action due | Section 232 investigation into Robotics and Industrial Machinery | |
9/29/26 | Implementation | 100% (generally) Section 232 tariff on Pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients for companies not in Annex II or III |
|
10/24/26 | Action due | Section 301 investigation into China’s Compliance with Phase One agreement | |
11/10/26 | Expiration | Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions | |
11/10/26 | Implementation | Section 301 fees on Chinese ships servicing U.S. ports | |
11/10/26 | Implementation | 100% Section 301tariff on Chinese ship-to-shore cranes, intermodal chassis and parts | |
12/4/2026 | Implementation | Section 232 15% tariff + minimum import prices for polysilicon and certain derivative products |
|
1/1/27 | Implementation | 10% Section 301 tariff on Nicaraguan imports not originating under CAFTA-DR | Tariff rises to 15% on 1/1/28 |
1/1/27 | Implementation | Escalation of varying Section 232 tariffs on timber, lumber, and derivative products | |
3/17/27 | Action due | Section 301 investigation into 16 countries’ Structural Excess Capacity and Production in Manufacturing Sectors |
|
3/26/27 | Report due | Section 232 investigation into Anthracite Coal | Action due 6/24/27 |
5/29/27 | Action due | Section 301 investigation into Vietnam’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Intellectual Property Protection and Enforcement |
|
6/23/27 | Implementation | Unspecified rate of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductors | Will be announced 30 days in advance |
TBD | Implementation | 100% tariff on movies |
|
TBD | Implementation | Section 232 inclusions process for timber and lumber |
|
TBD | Implementation | Section 232 inclusions process for truck parts |
|
