Trade Tidbits – August 21, 2026

Being on the Same Team as You Is All the Padding I Need, Greer-ey

Last we left things, the U.S. and Canada had either a deal, work to do, or both.

USTR Jamieson Greer and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met on Wednesday morning. Minister LeBlanc returnedto Ottawa Wednesday to brief provincial and territorial premiers alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney. Then, he hopped back to DC Thursday for three hours of talks, with still more talks today. (I assume Chief Trade Negotiator Janice Charette was with Minister LeBlanc for all this, but it wasn’t always entirely clear in news reports). Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand also met in DC this week. While neither readout mentions trade, some of the topics (Arctic, NATO) have been trade-adjacent in the past and could be related to the negotiations.

So where are things at? A New York Times article from yesterday cited anonymous sources on both sides who are “familiar with the negotiations,” who characterized the talks as still “well beyond tying off loose ends.” Per the NYT, things remain hung up on steel, aluminum, and lumber.

Politico reported yesterday that draft text is circulating among industry representatives for feedback. Broad contours include a cut in the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariff from 50% to 25%; lower tariffs on some derivative products of unspecified metal; a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) on steel; and a cut in the Section 232 auto tariff from 25% to 15%, provided a certain amount of U.S. content. Canada would commit to dropping retaliation; aligning derivative tariffs for certain steel and aluminum products, including higher tariffs for countries without a free trade agreement; and overhauling its dairy import quotas. There is also a digital trade section and taking a leap to connect two stories, the Toronto Star is saying that the government is telling publishers to prepare for the end of the Online News Act.

On steel, the Globe and Mail is reporting today that the steel TRQ would be 4 million tons at a 25% rate. Aluminum is still ongoing.

On autos, Bloomberg reported the auto tariff cut Wednesday, while sources told the Globe and Mail yesterday that Canada’s push for excluding Canadian and Mexican content from the tariffs was not looking promising. But Canada’s still trying for a 10% rate.

Both sides are grappling with political pressures. For the U.S., the steel industry doesn’t want a steel tariff cut, the Coalition for a Prosperous America doesn’t want an aluminum (or other) tariff cut, and the U.S. lumber industry doesn’t want a lumber tariff cut. President Donald Trump told reporters Wednesday, “We’ve got to give something…[Canada was] paying a high number, we’re reducing it a little bit, it’s good for everybody.”

Across the border, PM Carney emphasized “the importance of a strong Team Canada approach” when he briefed Canadian premiers on Wednesday. At that meeting, he asked the premiers to end the alcohol ban and change their procurement policies, and Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham said that all agreed to the request on alcohol.

But that apparent unanimity isn’t without some warts. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said, “You can’t get a good deal with a bad person…I think if we kept pushing, I think that we’d probably get more.” He added that even if American booze returns to Manitoba’s shelves, “Don’t buy it.” Christine Fréchette, the Premier of Québéc, which has aluminum and dairy interests, said (via X’s translate function), “I am missing information before making the appropriate decisions to ensure I protect Quebecers. I am awaiting clarifications.” She added, “As for the return of alcohol to SAQ shelves, let’s be clear: it is Quebec, and Quebec alone, that will decide.” We probably need to send a BOLO for Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s phone because the prolific X user hasn’t posted anything since Tuesday, though PM Carney apparently talked to him one-on-one.

Amid all this, what about Mexico? PM Carney spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum yesterday, though there weren’t any specifics worth noting in the readout. But this potential larger U.S.-Canada deal could put pressure on Mexico to match it. The question is how much Mexico has or has not already agreed to or even already implemented. For example, the aforementioned Politico article said Canada might commit to increasing steel and/or aluminum tariffs on trading partners with which it doesn’t have a trade agreement. Mexico did something similar at the beginning of the year. Of course, the devil is in the details on how aligned those two moves are or are not. And Mexico is apparently weighing going further on the issue too.

Before leaving the USMCA section, Mexico criticized antidumping duties on winter strawberries. Mexico is also working on a “dry canal” of rail to link the Gulf of Mexico with the Pacific Ocean.