ON DECK:
- Trade agencies stay up and running during shutdown as AGOA, Haiti trade preferences expire
- No pharma or trucks 232 announcements yet
- Trump-Lula meeting just needs a location; Greer says USMCA review will be more bilateral than trilateral; Trump pans China’s lack of soybean purchases as Bessent predicts breakthrough; EU may increase tariffs, cut quotas on steel; Taiwan rejects 50/50 chips split but floats investment help
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
Last we left things, we were a few hours from a government shutdown. Where we find things today is a few days into a government shutdown.
At the time of the last update, USTR had released and withdrew a shutdown plan. They re-released the plan and, instead of furloughing 40% of its staff, it’s keeping everyone on board. USTR Jamieson Greer said his agency would be “pretty much…fully functioning” during a shutdown (just spit-balling, but I would guess the “pretty much” caveat involves no travel). Since we’re at it, I’ll reup the shutdown plans for the Commerce Department and Department of Homeland Security (including CBP).
It’s worth noting that October 1 also brought the lapsing of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the HOPE/HELP trade preferences for Haiti. An anonymous White House official said that the Trump Administration supports a one-year extension of AGOA, while Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) introduced S. 2958, which would extend AGOA for…some amount of time. We don’t know because the bill text hasn’t posted due to the shutdown and there’s no statement on Kennedy’s website. He previously introduced a bill to extend it through 2045. Top Ways and Means Democrats released a statement lamenting the lapsing of AGOA.
Marco
So yeah. We were supposed to get the Section 232 pharmaceutical and chip actions by October 1. As I check my calendar, it’s October 3. I’m told that October 3 comes after October 1. An anonymous White House official told Politico that the pharmaceutical tariffs are on pause pending some investment announcements. No word on why the trucks holdup. I guess we’re in a holding pattern until we aren’t.
News from the Rest of the World
- Australia: Trade Minister Don Farrell said his country supports a push to crack down on EV overcapacity.
- Brazil: The U.S. and Brazil (per Firefox’s translate feature) are working towards a meeting between Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump, but a location is proving elusive due to their travel schedules. The upcoming ASEAN summit in Malaysia on October 26 might fit the bill.
- Cambodia: A bipartisan Congressional delegation visited Cambodia last week.
- Canada: When asked about the status of talks on Section 232 tariffs, Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc told reporters, “We’re making progress. We’re not there yet.” He added that Section 232 talks will remain separate from the USMCA review. USTR Jamieson Greer told a group that the USMCA review would be more bilateral than trilateral due to specific issues with each individual country. Energy Minister Tim Hodgson released a statement decrying the Section 232 lumber tariffs.
- China: President Trump truthed that China isn’t buying U.S. soybeans for “‘negotiating’ reasons” and that soybeans would be a “major topic of discussion” in four weeks when he meets with President Xi Jinping. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects a “pretty big breakthrough” in the next round of U.S.-China talks. He added, “It’s unfortunate the Chinese leadership has decided to use the American farmers, soybean farmers, in particular, as a hostage or pawn in the trade negotiations.” USTR Greer told a group that 55% tariffs on China are a “good status quo.” He also said said China “overplayed their hand” on rare earth magnets because they impacted the whole world, adding that G7 counterparts “didn’t complain to me about the president’s tariffs. They complained about the Chinese controls on rare earth magnets.”
- The EU: The EU is circulating a draft proposal to raise steel tariffs to 50% and cut steel import quotas in half.
- India: Russian oil imports fell from 1.72 million barrels/day in August to 1.61 million barrels/day in September. An anonymous government source told local media that talks with the U.S. are continuing virtually.
- Malaysia: The government released a 15-point plan to address steel overcapacity and decarbonization. The local furniture industry is asking the government for aid in the wake of the Section 232 lumber tariff announcement.
- Mexico: USTR Greer told a group that the USMCA review would be more bilateral than trilateral due to specific issues with each individual country.
- New Zealand: Lumber producers warned of “significant financial repercussions” of the Section 232 lumber tariffs, while others breathed a sigh of relief because they thought it’d be worse. Trade Minister Todd McClay warned against foreign film tariffs, telling press, “They’ll never touch our precioussss” “Films are still going to be made here out
of the US, respective of what happens there.” - South Korea: The Ministry of Economy and Finance and Treasury Department held foreign exchange talks, agreeing to the public disclosure of reserves data, forward positions, and currency composition of reserves. Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo told a forum that the government is stressing to the U.S. that South Korea cannot agree to the same investment plan as Japan.
- Taiwan: Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun led a delegation to the U.S. for talks from September 25-29. She said her side is evaluating credit guarantees for companies expanding U.S. investment as part of negotiations. They would need land, visa, and regulatory help from the U.S. She also told reporters that they will not agree to a deal in which 50% of chip production is in the U.S.
- The UK: New Section 232 tariff announcements are poking/could poke holes in the U.S.-UK deal. The U.S. is weighing easing tariffs on Scotch.
Quick Hits
- President Donald Trump said he’d direct some tariff revenue to relief for farmers
- Plaintiffs are asking the Supreme Court to allow more time for oral arguments on the IEEPA tariffs
- Tariffs have revived previously-dormant bilateral free trade agreement negotiations
- USTR Jamieson Greer told Fox Business that move tariffs would follow an investigation (though he didn’t specify whether it’d be a USTR or Commerce investigation)
- The WSJ released a video explainer on the logic behind a movie tariff
- The African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of countries preparing a proposal on the WTO e-commerce moratorium
- The U.S. said it would not consider the recent WTO fisheries agreement as a basis for advancing a successor agreement on subsidies for overfishing and overcapacity
Tarif-Fone
Let me know if I missed anything. It’s not unpossible. IEEPA tariffs struck down by courts but in place pending appeal are italicized. There are lawsuits pending on some of the other IEEPA actions, but those have separate circumstances and arguments and may not be struck down themselves. I’m keeping the due date for the trucks and pharma 232s until we have something firm.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
2/4/25 | China | 20% (10% from 2/4/25-3/3/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Canada | 35% (25% from 3/4/25-7/31/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Mexico | 25% | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/2/25 | Countries importing Venezuelan oil (currently none) | 25% | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/4/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/5/25 | Countries not on this list (minus Canada, China, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Belarus) | 10% | ||
4/9/25 | China | 10% (was 125% from 4/10/25-5/3/25; was 84% on 4/9/25) | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/6/25 | Brazil | 40% | ||
8/7/25 | ||||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
Effective 8/27/25 | India | 25% | ||
Effective 8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
9/15/25 to 9/29/25 | All countries | Inclusion request window for Section 232 steel and aluminum derivatives opens | 25% |
Coming Attractions |
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Status | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
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10/1/25 | All countries | Inclusion request window for Section 232 auto parts opens | 25% |
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Effective 10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product |
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Effective 10/1/25(?) | All countries (probably) | 100% unless construction ongoing |
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Effective 10/1/25(?) | All countries (probably) | 25% |
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Effective 10/14/25 | Shipping companies | Various fees |
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Comments due 10/17/25 (action due 5/30/26) | All countries | Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices | TBD |
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Comments due 10/17/25 (action due 5/30/26) | All countries | TBD |
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Due 10/22/25 or 1/20/26 (comments due 5/16/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD |
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Due 10/28/25 | All countries | Inclusions process for Section 232 copper |
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Effective 11/10/25 | China | Reciprocal tariff | 34% |
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Expires 11/29/25 | China | Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions | 7.5% or 25% |
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Due 12/10/25 (hearing was 3/11/25) | China | TBD |
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Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD |
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Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD |
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Effective 1/1/26 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10%, 30%, or 50% depending on product |
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Due 1/20/26 (comments due 5/16/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD |
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Due 1/26/26 (comments due 6/3/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD |
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Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD |
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Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD |
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Due 5/10/26 (comments due 9/9/25) | All countries | TBD |
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Due 7/15/26 | Brazil | TBD |
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TBD (no current deadline) | Canada | 25% |
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TBD (no current deadline) | Mexico | 25% |
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TBD | All countries (probably) | 100% | TBD (maybe Section 232) |
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