ON DECK:
- U.S., China agree to one-year truce on a lot of stuff
- Malaysian Trade Minister defends deal
- U.S., Japan detail investment fund as Trump and Takaichi hit it off
- U.S., South Korea pull deal back from the brink
- Trump, Carney seated at same table as talks still not in a great place
- Lutnick invited to EU; Ways and Means sends a shot across France’s bow on digital services tax; Mexico tariff hike postponed for…some amount of time; Taiwan talks advance
- Senate votes to repeal three IEEPA actions as Dems (+ Murkowski) reveal SCOTUS IEEPA amicus brief
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
Xi You in a Year
Last we left things, President Donald Trump had a few legs left on his Asia trip, namely to Japan and South Korea. And South Korea would be the site of the meeting between him and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Ahead of the meeting, China bought its first soybean cargoes of the year, a signal that things might be heading in a good direction.
The two did indeed meet, and President Trump reported afterwards, “From zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12.” But what was actually agreed to is a bit scattered. No proclamations or fact sheets yet (and until we get paper, this is all subject to change).
Let’s attempt to pull some disparate sources together:
- President Trump told reporters that this is a one-year deal that can be “very routinely extended as time goes by.”
- A 10% rate cut on the IEEPA fentanyl tariffs, “effective immediately” (or when there’s paper). In exchange, China will crack down on fentanyl precursor production.
- The Commerce Department will delay for one year implementation of its recent interim final rule that expanded Entity List and Military End User restrictions to “any entity that is at least 50 percent owned by one or more entities” on either list.
- China will delay for one year (but not roll back) implementation of its rare earth export controls. It’s not clear if that pause impacts April export restrictions on seven rare earth elements, as well as rare earth magnets.
- The U.S. will delay for one year its Section 301 shipping fees, and China will do the same for its retaliatory shipping fees.
- President Trump will visit China in April, and President Xi will visit the U.S. (either Palm Beach or DC) at a date TBD.
- A TikTok deal was finalized.
- China will buy 87 million metric tons of soybeans through 2028, including 12 million metric tons this year. China has already begun more purchases.
- China may purchase U.S. oil and gas.
- USTR will continue its Section 301 investigation into China’s compliance with the Phase One agreement.
- Despite President Trump floating it (and some in Congress warning against it), Nvidia’s advanced Blackwell chips did not come up, though Nvidia still hopes to be able to sell them to China. That said, there might be something on chips.
- Taiwan didn’t come up, nor did Russian oil (though Ukraine did).
I *think* that’s about everything. Again, let’s see what paper gets put out. It’s possible we don’t get a grand unified list o’ stuff, and instead just have to keep track of one-off delay announcements in the Federal Register. House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA) and Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Ranking Member Linda Sanchez (D-CA) panned the deal on Monday, but that was days before the Trump-Xi meeting.
A few other things to note on the China front. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth met Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun as the U.S. weighs a “show of force” in the South China Sea. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) voted unanimously to expand restrictions on “untrustworthy” Chinese telecommunications equipment. The Nexperia chips saga is threatening European and Brazilian auto production. The EU is debating requiring Chinese exporters to supply raw materials to its stockpiles, described as an “in-kind” tariff. Canada is leading a G7 effort to loosen China’s hold on rare earths. China and ASEAN signed an agreement to expand the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. China excluded EVs from its list of strategic industries in its 2026-2030 development plan.
Not Enough Thaime to Look Closer at the SE Asia Deals
As you’ll recall, over the weekend, USTR announced deals with Malaysia and Cambodia and frameworks with Vietnam and Thailand.
I left the door open to a deeper dive on the deals, but I didn’t have enough time, so maybe next week. That said, there are still some interesting post-announcement things to note.
In Malaysia, Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz defended the deal in a session of parliament (during which the Speaker had to warn lawmakers not to criticize the civil servants that negotiated the deal). He called the deal a “best case scenario” for Malaysia under the circumstances. Minister Aziz also assured his colleagues that the raw rare earth export ban would remain and that halal standards would be intact. Also, the Treasury Department and Bank Negara Malaysia released a statement on exchange rate manipulation.
In Thailand, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul asked President Donald Trump at a dinner in South Korea for a “better” trade deal in the wake of the Thailand-Cambodia peace deal that was signed in Malaysia. The Treasury Department and Bank of Thailand released a statement on exchange rate manipulation as well.
Also, USTR released a spate of laudatory statements.
550 Billion Reasons to Be Friends
President Donald Trump’s Asia trip included a stop in Japan to meet new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The two seemed to hit it off pretty well, with President Trump declaring at a rally aboard the USS George Washington, “This woman is a winner!” PM Takaichi clearly took some cues from her late predecessor, Shinzo Abe.
The big deliverable from the stop appears to be more details on the $550 billion investment fund. A Joint Fact Sheet for Japan-U.S. Investment lays out projects covering energy, power development for AI, strengthening AI infrastructure, and critical minerals. Seems like this was Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s purview. President Trump had also mentioned a $10 billion investment from Toyota, but Toyota clarified that’s an old announcement.
A few other things to note. The two sides inked a U.S.-Japan Technology Prosperity Deal and a critical minerals framework (not to be confused with the agreement focusing on free trade in critical minerals (AFOFTICM)). The White House released a fact sheet from the visit. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent released a readout of his meeting with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Japan rejected U.S. entreaties to stop purchasing Russian LNG.
K-Pop Dealin’ Hunters
After the Japan leg, President Donald Trump visited South Korean for the APEC summit. Both sides had done their best to beat expectations into the ground for a deal, but it seems like they worked something out. Still no proclamation or anything, so, as with China, we can only get into broad contours.
President Trump truthed that South Korea agreed to the $350 billion investment fund; to buy oil and gas; and that they would build a nuclear powered submarine in Philadelphia.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added some details too: $150 billion of the fund will be designated for shipbuilding; $200 billion is for an Alaska natural gas pipeline, energy infrastructure, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, and AI and quantum computing; South Korea will “FULLY open [its] markets. 100%!”; their reciprocal rate will be 15%; autos and auto parts will be 15%; and chips tariffs are not part of the deal.
A White House fact sheet flags Boeing and defense purchases; a rare earth refining complex; energy purchases; expansion of a uranium enrichment facility; power grid infrastructure investment; a U.S.-South Korea Technology Prosperity Deal; Amazon investment in South Korean cloud infrastructure; a ride for a South Korean satellite near the moon; and a lot more.
South Korea will still have to move this trade deal through its National Assembly, and tariff concessions from the U.S. won’t kick in until then.
Trump, Like Shohei Ohtani, Takes an Intentional Walk from Canada
Heading into summit-palooza this week, President Donald Trump paused talks with Canada. So it was that a cryptic truth caught some eyeballs: “For those that are asking, we didn’t come to South Korea to see Canada!” Turns out, he and Prime Minister Mark Carney would be seated at the same table at a dinner in South Korea. President Trump said after the dinner that the two had a “very nice conversation.”
But what of the talks? Anonymous White House officials told Politico that talks hadn’t been going well before the kerfuffle over the Ontario ad. They alleged that Canada was slow-walking talks, pointing out that Canada’s tariffs were put on early and yet deals with the EU and Japan have been secured. Those officials also mentioned that President Trump has been particularly unhappy with Canada’s request for Section 232 steel and aluminum tariff exemptions.
Up north, Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s Ambassador to the U.S., testified before a parliamentary committee that “contours” of a deal were taking shape when talks were cut off, with both sides “putting…views on paper.”
As for Ontario, Premier Doug Ford told his provincial legislature, “Mission accomplished…They’re talking about it in the U.S., and they weren’t talking about it before I put the ad on.” Premier Ford also told reporters that he felt like autos, a major Ontario industry, wasn’t getting enough attention in the talks: “There’s no mention whatsoever of auto…I feel like it’s slipped to the side.” He penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal laying out his logic for the ad too.
News from the Rest of the World
- Argentina: 14 House Republicans led by House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO), Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Chairman Adrian Smith (R-NE), and Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL) sent a letter to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and USTR Jamieson Greer raising concerns about plans to import Argentinian beef.
- Australia: Trade Minister Don Farrell says he wants to use momentum from last week’s visit by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to press for no tariffs on Australian goods.
- The EU: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been invited to Brussels on November 24 for talks with EU trade ministers.
- France: The National Assembly voted to raise the digital services tax from 3% to 6%. Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO), Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee Chairman Mike Kelly (R-PA), and Chairman Adrian Smith (R-NE), released a joint statement threatening retaliation should the tax hike come into effect.
- India: Bloomberg reports that Prime Minister Narendra Modi didn’t attend the ASEAN summit because he didn’t want to talk to President Donald Trump about Pakistan.
- Indonesia: Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto said that he expects a deal with the U.S. to include zero-tariff treatment for Annex III items, similar to Malaysia.
- Mexico: President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke to President Trump over the weekend, and he agreed to postpone the IEEPA fentanyl tariff’s 5% escalation, which was set to happen this week (some said November 1, others said October 29…the exact deadline was never quite clear since it only existed as a truth). It’s not clear what the new deadline is, with President Sheinbaum saying the extension is for several weeks. President Trump didn’t clarify how long the extension was for when asked aboard Air Force One.
- Taiwan: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke with APEC envoy Lin Hsin-i at the APEC meeting. Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun said that the U.S. and Taiwan are exchanging written documents and hope to have an agreement sometime after this week’s APEC meeting.
AIEEEE-PA
The Senate hasn’t been able to break the government funding impasse, but it did vote on a trio of IEEPA-related bills this week. It passed S.J. Res. 81, which would end the IEEPA Brazil tariffs, on a 52-48 vote Tuesday. It passed S.J. Res. 77, which would terminate the IEEPA fentanyl tariffs on Canada, on a 50-46 vote Wednesday. And it passed S.J. Res. 88, which would terminate the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs, on a 51-47 vote Thursday. These were party-line votes, with the exception of yes votes from Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Rand Paul (R-KY) on all three resolutions. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) voted yes on the Brazil resolution and no on the others. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) applauded the votes and urged the House to take the resolutions up.
Also of note on the IEEPA front, House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA) announced that 171 House Democrats, 35 Senate Democrats, and 1 Republican Senator (Sen. Murkowski) signed an amicus brief to the Supreme Court on the pending IEEPA case. Oral arguments are next Wednesday and will be led, for one set of plaintiffs, by former acting U.S. Solicitor General Neal Katyal (which someone argued last week could be a tactical error).
Quick Hits
- CBP released a CSMS message on the implementation of the Section 232 truck tariffs
CBP released a CSMS message to implement the duty offset for auto parts imports - The Senate Finance Committee held a nomination hearing Wednesday on a pair of USTR nominees – Jeffrey Goettman (Deputy USTR) and Julie Callahan (Chief Agricultural Negotiator)
- Tuesday was the deadline (by my calculations) for the Section 232 copper inclusions process, but nothing has been released yet, and I don’t see anything pending on the OIRA dashboard
- The U.S. paid up on its WTO dues
Tarif-Fone
Let me know if I missed anything. It’s not unpossible. IEEPA tariffs struck down by courts but in place pending appeal are italicized. There are lawsuits pending on some of the other IEEPA actions, but those have separate circumstances and arguments and may not be struck down themselves. I’m keeping the due date for the pharma 232 until we have something firmer. In a similar vein, I’m not taking the Section 301 shipping fees off the books yet until there’s something formal.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
2/4/25 | China | 20% (10% from 2/4/25-3/3/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Canada | 35% (25% from 3/4/25-7/31/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Mexico | 25% | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/2/25 | Countries importing Venezuelan oil (currently none) | 25% | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/4/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/5/25 | Countries not on this list (minus Canada, China, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Belarus) | 10% | ||
4/9/25 | China | 10% (was 125% from 4/10/25-5/3/25; was 84% on 4/9/25) | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/6/25 | Brazil | 40% | ||
8/7/25 | ||||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
8/27/25 | India | 25% | ||
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
10/14/25 | Shipping companies | |||
Coming Attractions | ||||
Status | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
10/1/25(?) | All countries | Inclusion request window for Section 232 auto parts opens | 25% | |
Effective 10/1/25(?) | All countries (probably) | 100% unless construction ongoing | ||
Due 10/28/25 | All countries | Inclusions process for Section 232 copper | ||
Effective 11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
11/5/25 | All countries | Oral arguments at Supreme Court in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump | Variable | |
11/9/25 | China | 100% | ||
Comments due 11/10/25 | China | Up to 150% | ||
Effective 11/10/25 | China | Reciprocal tariff | 34% | |
Comments due 11/19/25 | Nicaragua | 100% | ||
Expires 11/29/25 | China | Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions | 7.5% or 25% | |
Comments due 12/1/25 (hearing 12/16/25; action due 10/24/26) | China | TBD | ||
Due 12/10/25 (hearing was 3/11/25) | China | TBD | ||
Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Effective 1/1/26 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10%, 30%, or 50% depending on product | ||
Due 1/20/26 (comments due 5/16/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 1/20/26 (10/22/25 possible too) (comments due 5/16/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 1/26/26 (comments due 6/3/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 5/10/26 (comments due 9/9/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices | TBD | |
Due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 7/15/26 | Brazil | TBD | ||
TBD (no current deadline) | Canada | 25% | ||
TBD (no current deadline) | Mexico | 25% | ||
TBD | All countries (probably) | 100% | TBD (maybe Section 232) | |
TBD | Mexico | 30% | IEEPA | |
