ON DECK
- Latest on Iran-related supply chain disruptions
- President Trump says stuff on USMCA
- Greer and LeBlanc talk in France, USTR and Mexico talk ag in DC
- Lula meets Trump in France; China’s Ambassador to U.S. calls for 10x-ing tariff relief in Board of Trade; European Parliament passes U.S.-EU trade deal; Modi meets Trump in France as Greer will visit India next week
- An errant (hopefully not jinxy) thought on 301 excess capacity timing
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
Iran Sitrep
WTI is down to $75/barred (was $84 last week). Brent is also down to $78/barrel (was $86 last week). Gasoline prices continued their fall, hitting $3.96 (was $4.08 last week), with diesel down to $5.08 (was $5.25 last week).
Traffic *seems* to be flowing in the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding. At the risk of jinxing things, I’ll probably not put this up at the top anymore, with further updates more somewhere in the body from here on out.
“I Don’t Know if It’s Going to Go Anywhere. Jan Was Very Specific That This Is Not Going Anywhere…I’m Definitely Feeling Very Eerie.” “Irie.”
Lots to catch up on USMCA. We’ll start high-level before our individual check-ins.
President Donald Trump said another thing on USMCA. Speaking to reporters on the tarmac in France, he said the following (I found a transcript, and think it’s worth pulling the exchange, as much space as it takes up):
QUESTION: How long do you hope USMCA negotiations or reviews go on?
TRUMP: Well, it’s not something that’s, to me, I think it’s better without it…We do better without an agreement.
QUESTION: Do you want to just leave it a rolling-
(CROSSTALK)
TRUMP: I would rather leave it unsigned. I’d rather have it terminated.
QUESTION: You’d rather have it terminated, those are two different things, sir. I just wanted to be clear.
TRUMP: I would rather not have the agreement. But it, I may sign it.
QUESTION: Right.
TRUMP: But I would, we do better as a country if we don’t have an agreement.
QUESTION: So are you thinking of-
TRUMP: Yeah, I’m thinking about maybe we won’t be able to make a deal. I would rather not have the USMCA…So on top of everything else, it comes to I would prefer not having an agreement but I’m open to doing it. We’ll see what happens.
QUESTION: So as of now, just going to stick around for 10 years, you OK with that?
TRUMP: We’re not, no, it’s not sticking around. It will be terminated. In other words-
QUESTION: After, after a decade.
TRUMP: It expires.
QUESTION: Yeah, yeah, in a decade.
TRUMP: It expires.
QUESTION: Yeah.
TRUMP: I, I prefer that. I view it as possibly expiring immediately.
Ok. Lot to unpack there, and at the same time, it’s hard to know what to take away. You have the familiar we-don’t-need-Mexico-or-Canada rhetoric, which he said last week and many other times, in other contexts trade and non-trade, and in his other term.
Reporters try to press him on a key distinction: Whether he wants to terminate USMCA altogether or just not agree to renew it on July 1, after which all sides keep talking for another ten years. (And, given the negotiating schedule, plus July 1 somehow being only two weeks away, the latter is already well on the horizon) President Trump responds at various points with basically the full range of outcomes: “It will be terminated;” “I view it as possibly expiring immediately;” and “I would prefer not having an agreement but I’m open to doing it. We’ll see what happens.” So yeah. If I didn’t know any better, I’d think he likes to keep people guessing.
U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra put a shine on the recent rhetoric, calling it an invitation to make a deal: “You maybe don’t like the way the President says it, but…what he’s saying is we’re open to offers. Make your case.” Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Mark Wiseman, meanwhile, told a crowd to “take a deep breath, relax, it’s all going to be ok” as he reminded them that July 1 is not a termination day.
Before moving on, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney also told reporters that the U.S. is trying to extract changes that don’t go so far as to trigger a vote in Congress. This is another thing we already kinda and have obviously seen manifested in, well, just about every other trade context the last year and a half. But it’s nevertheless notable to hear that acknowledged by another country’s leader.
Digging into individual country news, we’ll start with Canada, because President Trump and PM Carney had a tête-à-tête at the G7 summit in FRANCE! It was less a formal meeting (French President Emmanuel Macron was the only G7 leader to get one of those) and more a hot-mic moment and follow-up conversation. The hot mic picked up PM Carney pitching President Trump on Canada’s Chinese EV import arrangement. PM Carney told reporters that President Trump “likes the structure, actually” But President Trump said, “I don’t know that I said I like it, but I could understand that, yeah,” adding, “Would I rather see a cap than no cap? Yeah, I would.”
USTR Jamieson Greer did meet with Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc in France, with Minister LeBlanc reporting that the two “took stock of the progress” since their meeting two weeks ago. He said the two would talk next week as well. However, he declined to elaborate on what specifically they talked about. Ambassador Wiseman told a group this week that relief on the Section 232 steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs is more important than USMCA renewal, but it’s not clear the extent to which those issues are actually separated.
Dipping south, the U.S. and Mexico held another round of negotiations this week. These were reportedly focused on agriculture and energy, but I haven’t seen any sort of readout as yet. Three anonymous “people families with the talks” told Politico ag talks would focus on seasonal produce and geographic indicators.
The U.S. also launched another USMCA Rapid Response Labor Mechanism case against a Mexican facility. And 17 Representatives, led by Reps. Adrian Smith (R-NE), Jim Costa (D-CA), Dusty Johnson (R-SD), and Jimmy Panetta (D-CA), sent a letter to USTR Greer and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins raising concerns about Mexican grain shipment inspections. Finally, Politico chronicled various trade and non-trade storm clouds that hang over the U.S.-Mexico relationship as the USMCA review rolls on.
News from the Rest of the World
- Brazil: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva met with President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France. President Lula reportedly warned President Trump not to meddle in Brazil’s October election. The meeting came as the Supreme Court convicted Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, of coercion, sentencing him to just over four years in prison.
- China: The Commerce Ministry expressed its displeasure at last week’s additions by the Pentagon to its list of Chinese companies aiding the Chinese military. The Commerce Department, though, held off on adding more Chinese companies, including AI startup DeepSeek, to its Entity List. But it did impose export controls on U.S. AI company Anthropic’s Mythos AI model, in part due to concerns South Korean telecom giant SK Telecom’s ties to China. Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng called for the U.S.-China Board of Trade to increase its tariff relief from $30 billion to $300 billion. Retail sales dropped for the first time since COVID. China detained an American citizen, while France said it has shut down nine clandestine Chinese “police stations” tracking dissidents in France.
- The EU: The European Parliament voted 440-151 (50 abstentions) to approve the U.S.-EU trade deal. The final step, approval by the Council of the EU, is set for June 26. Take a wild guess what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in celebrating the vote (hint: it begins with “a deal” and ends with “a deal”). Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic didn’t say the thing, though. Sad face. Also President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on French wine over its digital services tax, which French President Emanuel Macron said “non non non.” Also also the EU may be trending towards a more confrontational stance towards China.
- India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi met President Donald Trump in France during the G7 summit, with the latter saying a trade deal is “very close.” Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said USTR Jamieson Greer will visit India next week to put the “final touches” on the deal. Ahead of USTR Greer’s trip, the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S. sent him a letter urging him to secure market access in India on par with what the EU and UK receive.
- South Korea: Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo reviewed the state of U.S. trade talks and tariffs, including follow-up measures, with his fellow ministers this week. Minister Yeo also said that South Korea would defend its steel industry as the EU implements reductions in its steel quotas and increases its steel tariff rates. The U.S. imposed export controls on U.S. AI company Anthropic’s Mythos AI model, in part due to concerns South Korean telecom giant SK Telecom’s ties to China.
301 Last Thought
The results of the Section 301 investigation into forced labor were announced on June 2. However, we haven’t gotten the results of the Section 301 investigation into excess capacity yet. As a reminder, the Section 122 tariffs expire on July 24.
But let’s do a thought exercise. What if USTR announced the excess capacity results today, with a similar comment, hearing, etc. deadline as the forced labor 301? This (theoretical, unless I just jinxed it) June 18 announcement would yield a July 8 deadline for requests to appear at the hearing; a July 22 deadline for written comments; and a July 23 hearing. And again, the Section 122 tariffs expire on July 24. Don’t know particularly what to do with that, but pointing it out all the same.
Quick Hits
- CBP released a new Forced Labor Enforcement Operational Guidance for Importers, which “provides a consolidated overview of the three authorities CBP uses to prevent the importation of goods produced with forced labor into the United States in a single, accessible document”
- The Supreme Court declined to take up a case that challenged the expansion of the Section 301 China tariffs to Lists 3 and 4a
- The G7 agreed that no single country should supply more than 60% of rare earth imports by 2030
- 23 Senate Republicans led by Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) sent a letter to USTR Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick urging them to launch a Section 301 investigation into foreign pharmaceutical pricing
- Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) introduced H.R. 9284 and S. 4748 respectively, the Foreign Investment Review Monitoring and (FIRM) Commitment Tracking Oversight Board Act, which would create a Foreign Investment Review Authority to track and publicly disclose foreign investment commitments, including those made by South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan under their respective trade deals, as well as under the new U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment
- Sens. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Ron Wyden (D-OR), the top Democrats on the Senate Small Business and Finance Committees respectively, sent a letter to CBP demanding that IEEPA tariff refunds be sent immediately without any further delays
- As always, I’m not a lawyer, but I found interesting this National Review article chronicling the debate between Supreme Court Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Ketanji Brown Jackson over the usefulness of legislative intent and Congressional committee reports (which the Court of International Trade leaned on heavily in striking down the Section 122 tariffs)
What’s the Dealies, Yo?
This is my stab at building a list of trade deals (specifically Frameworks, Agreements on Free Trade, and a few others with one-off nomenclatures). If I missed something, please let me know! I’ll add that the Council on Foreign Relations also has a tracker.
Country | Type | Date |
Argentina | 2/5/26 | |
Bangladesh | 2/9/26 | |
Cambodia | 10/26/25 | |
Ecuador | 3/13/26 | |
El Salvador | 1/29/26 | |
The EU | 8/21/25 | |
Guatemala | 1/30/26 | |
India | 2/6/26 | |
Indonesia | 2/19/26 | |
Japan | 9/4/25 | |
Malaysia | 10/26/25 | |
North Macedonia | 2/12/26 | |
South Korea | 11/13/25 | |
Switzerland/ Liechtenstein | 11/14/25 | |
Taiwan | 2/12/26 | |
Thailand | 10/26/25 | |
The Philippines | 7/22/25 | |
The UK | 6/16/25 | |
Vietnam | 10/26/25 |
Tarif-Fone
I reworked the Coming Attractions a little. It was more suited to when we were confronting an ever-building wave of tariff threats, but now we have more comment windows and such, so I tried to make that flow a little better.
If I missed something or got something wrong, please let me know. It’s not unpossible. Italicizing the Section 122 tariffs pending more information.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
1/15/26 | All countries | Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in certain applications | 25% | |
2/24/26 | All countries | 10% (but maybe 15% at some point) | ||
4/6/26 | All countries | |||
6/8/26 | All countries | |||
