ON DECK:
- Trump Administration cuts Brazil IEEPA tariffs on food, implements South Korea tariff levels
- Trump and Xi hold a call as USTR postpones exclusion expiration, the last item on the U.S. side of the ledger
- Greer, Lutnick visit EU, with both sides at loggerheads on implementation, additional tariff cuts, and a steel-tariff-for-digital-regulation trade
- USTR holds USMCA public hearing as Trump will meet Sheinbaum and Carney today at World Cup draw
- USTR delegation heading to India next week; Indonesia deal stuck due to “poison pill” provisions; Swiss expect tariff cut soon; Taiwan says deal close, with expectations for another investment fund
- More speculation over SCOTUS Plan B as more companies file suit in hopes of safeguarding tariff refunds
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
So What’d I Miss? I Traveled the Wide, Wide World and Came Back to This
I always try to put tariff modifications up top, and we got a few over the break.
First, President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order exempting certain food products from the 40% IEEPA tariff on Brazil. You can read the Order here, the annexes listing the products here, and the CSMS notice implementing the order here. The move was retroactive to 12:01am Eastern on November 13. I haven’t verified, but the list of products is supposed to mirror the list of ag product exemptions announced before the break since products of Brazil would’ve only gotten a 10% cut and not the full 50%.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva posted a video to X thanking President Trump “only partially” for the relief. The X post text added (via X’s translate feature), “This was a step in the right direction, but we need to advance even further.” The two leaders spoke on the phone this week and had a “great talk” on trade and sanctions, per President Trump.
Next, the U.S. released a Federal Register notice (CSMS here) that implements cuts to the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs and various Section 232 tariffs, pursuant to the Joint Fact Sheet. This comes after the South Korean government submitted a bill to implement its $350 investment fund.
Operator Get Me Beijing-Jing-Jing-Jing
A wide variety of news on the China front since we last left things.
First, let’s take stock of the truce because USTR fulfilled its last action item by postponing the expiration of the remaining Section 301 China tariff exclusions until November 10. For the sake of completeness, I’ll post the checklist one last time.
The U.S. has four action items, and I’ll put any implementations in a sub-bullet:
- Lower, effective November 10, the IEEPA fentanyl tariff from 20% to 10% and maintain until November 10, 2026 the current IEEPA reciprocal rate of 10%
- Proclamation and Federal Register notice lowering the IEEPA fentanyl tariff
- Proclamation and Federal Register notice maintaining the IEEPA reciprocal rate
- Extend until November 10, 2026 the Section 301 exclusions that are set to expire November 29, 2025
- Federal Register notice postponing expiration
- Suspend for one year, effective November 10, the implementation of the interim final rule Expansion of End-User Controls To Cover Affiliates of Certain Listed Entities
- Federal Register notice implementing one-year suspension
- Suspend for one year, effective November 10, the implementation of the Section 301 China shipbuilding fees
- Federal Register notice soliciting comments for 29 hours (comment docket with 73 comments)
- Federal Register notice implementing one-year suspension
China has ten action items, with stories confirming implementation in a sub-bullet:
- Suspend the global implementation of the rare earth export controls announced October 9
- Issue general licenses for exports of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite for the benefit of U.S. end users and their suppliers around the world, which have been subject to controls since 2023
- Restrictions lifted on gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite
- Talks still ongoing on rare earths
- Stop shipment of certain designated chemicals involved in fentanyl to North America and strictly control exports of certain other chemicals to all destinations in the world
- Restrictions on export of 13 precursor chemicals to U.S., Mexico, and Canada
- Suspend all retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4
- Retaliatory tariffs removed from ag products and others
- Suspend or remove non-tariff announced since March 4
- Companies removed export control list and unreliable entity list
- Purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans in 2025 and 25 MMT in 2026-2028; resume purchases of sorghum and hardwood and softwood logs
- Take appropriate measures to ensure resumption of trade from Nexperia’s China facilities
- Remove retaliation for Section 301 China shipbuilding fees
- Extend expiration of its market-based tariff exclusion process for U.S. imports, with exclusions valid until December 31, 2026
- Couldn’t find an article saying this was implemented, doesn’t necessarily mean it hasn’t been
- Terminate antitrust, anti-monopoly, and antidumping investigations targeting American companies in the chip supply chain
- Couldn’t find an article saying this was implemented, doesn’t necessarily mean it hasn’t been
A few more notes on the implementation. The Department of Agriculture announced more soybean purchases, as well as China’s first ever wheat purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China is in a “perfect cadence” to meet the soybean purchase target of 12 million tons by the end of February. The soybean purchases are having secondary impacts, though, as China’s nearly tripled its soybean oil exports. China also issued its first batch of streamlined rare earth export licenses, though it sounds like Nexperia chips are still in a difficult place. Overall, Secretary Bessent said, “China is on track to keep every part of the deal.” USTR Jamieson Greer, meanwhile, told a summit, “The decision right now is we want to have stability in this relationship.”
There was some high-level contact during the break too. Ambassador to China David Perdue met with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on November 20. Today, Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer held a video call with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to have an “in-depth and constructive discussion.”
But the big kahuna came last week when Chinese President Xi Jinping took the unusual step of initiating a phone call with President Donald Trump. Per a post-call truth, the two talked about Ukraine, fentanyl, and soybeans. President Trump also said he accepted an invite to visit China in April, with President Xi visiting the U.S. at a later date (Secretary Bessent said the two could meet as many as four times next year). What the truth omitted is that Taiwan was discussed too, per China’s readout. Shortly after that call, President Trump called up Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to talk Taiwan, as Japan and China have been locked in a dispute over remarks from PM Takaichi over Taiwan (explainer here).
Elsewhere on the China beat, chips and export controls remain a big topic of discussion. There was the aforementioned difficulties on Nexperia chips. There’s been a big debate within the White House and Congress – and with the White House vs. Congress – on sales of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China. Chinese Premier Li Qiang launched a charm offensive on rare earths. European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic talked with Minister Wang about export controls as a a poll by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China tallied the cost of export controls. One firm estimated costs could exceed $290 million and another said it could cost 20% of gross global revenue.
And a smattering of a few other stories before closing out. Chinese officials had friendly little check-ins with Malaysia and Cambodia to voice “grave concerns” with the former and to “clarify” with the latter regarding their U.S. trade deals. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) is working on a bill to codify the Commerce Department’s 50% Entity List rule, which was among China’s casus belli. The Wall Street Journal chronicled the case of a medical device startup that’s being “[suffocated]” by its Chinese investor.
Let’s Not Bicker and Argue About Who Accused Who of Blackmail
USTR Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick visited Brussels for a pre-Thanksgiving huddle with their EU counterparts. There were plenty of smiling pictures posted by both sides, but the nitty gritty still shows a lot of work to do. Indeed, Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic told reporters the visit was “not about negotiations, it’s about the stock-taking exercise.” That was a transatlantic sentiment, with USTR Greer saying in a presser, “The conversations from this weekend were really about stocktaking, progress, what we’ve achieved, areas of divergence, areas of convergence.”
So then let’s take stock. Ahead of the meeting, the EU finalized a 27-page list of products that it wants exempted from tariffs but that were not included in the initial framework. The list includes pasta, cheese, alcohol, olive oil, and sunglasses. Bloomberg found some interesting things on the list too, such as [check notes] “howitzers and mortars, rocket and grenade launchers, flamethrowers, submachine guns, revolvers and pistols.” Luke Lindberg, the Department of Agriculture’s Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, told the Financial Times the U.S. is open to lifting tariffs on some European food items, singling out beef and lemons.
BUT. USTR Greer told Politico in an interview this week that the EU didn’t end up presenting the list. That might be because the EU is still trying to get past step one on its end of the bargain, for which he’s previously expressed frustration. He put it diplomatically in the interview, “I don’t say this to be critical…they’re proceeding through it as quickly as they can…It would be weird for them to come and say, ‘We haven’t finished making our tariff adjustments yet, and we want more from you.’”
Bernd Lange, the Chairman of the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee, floated removing tariffs on American lobsters as a sign of good faith as they continue to work through passing the broader package. But there’s still a road ahead. Chairman Lange and others want to add amendments, such as capping steel and aluminum tariffs, stopping derivative additions, and adding a sunset clause. Chairman Lange has said his committee may not vote on those amendments until January. And then, the deal has to pass the full Parliament. And then, the Parliament, European Commission, and member states have to negotiate. And then, the three institutions need to approve that. The Council of the EU did also adopt its negotiating mandates.
Then there’s steel and aluminum. Secretary Lutnick told Bloomberg TV that the U.S. is open to a steel and aluminum deal – for the low low price of some regulatory rollbacks, particularly in the digital space. Politico had a pretty thorough readout on the back and forth in this space. Secretary Lutnick told EU officials to “analyze their digital rules” and “come away with a balance … not put them away, but find a balanced approach that works with us.”
The EU doesn’t seem super open to that. Commissioner Sefcovic countered with a lot of explanations: “[The EU] explained how our legislation is working, we explained that this is not discriminatory…And I think that we just simply need to do more of the explanation in that regard.” An anonymous EU official told Politico more bluntly, “Steel and digital are completely unrelated.” Tech Commissioner Henna Virkkunen said in a statement, “I have been very clear since the very beginning: our digital legislation is not up for negotiation.” And a statement from Antitrust Commissioner Teresa Ribera put an even finer point on it, saying in a Monday statement, “The European digital rulebook is not up for negotiation.” She went even further Wednesday, saying the whole thing is “blackmail” in an interview with Politico. So you’re telling me there’s a chance.
This week, USTR Greer called Commissioner Ribera’s comments “totally extreme” in an interview with Politico. He added, “The law, in its intent is discriminatory, and de facto, it’s discriminatory.”
Hopping back to the aforementioned Politico readout on steel and aluminum, the EU also offered to work together on steel overcapacity from China, but Secretary Lutnick brushed that off as “easy,” and the U.S. side saying that’s not going to be enough to get a break on the tariffs. Also worth flagging some of the EU angst on steel and aluminum continues to emanate from the Section 232 derivative tariffs, but an anonymous Commerce official told Inside U.S. Trade the next tranche of decisions will probably be in 2026.
Moving forward, USTR Greer said he and other unnamed officials will meet with a team from the EU next week, though he didn’t specify when or how (virtual, in-person, etc.).
A few other pieces of cleanup on the EU beat. The U.S. said the EU’s proposed Space Act “contradicts the spirit of” the framework. The EU is weighing replacing tariffs on VW EVs produced in China with a quota and minimum price mechanism. The EU levied a €120 million fine on X over content moderation. And the EU opened a dialogue with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP; née TPP).
North American Temperature Check
USTR is kicking off its third and final day of public hearings for the USMCA review today. You can see the witness roster here. It’s also seeking comments on the operation of USMCA vis-à-vis trade in automotive goods. Comments are due January 7.
USTR Jamieson Greer told Politico this week that withdrawing from USMCA is “always a scenario.” He also floated the possibility of separate negotiations with Mexico and Canada, saying, “Our relationship with the Canadian economy is totally different than our relationship with the Mexican economy…I think it makes sense to talk to them separately about that agreement.”
Taking a look at the Mexico side of the ledger, President Claudia Sheinbaum is attending the World Cup draw in DC and will have her first face-to-face meeting with President Trump. USTR also announced two new USMCA Rapid Response Labor Mechanism cases. And the Washington Post took a look at how the New World screwworm has upended cattle trade.
Looking northward, talks with Canada have remained paused since the October 23 truth from President Trump. But so has that additional 10% tariff threat. Prime Minister Mark Carney is traveling to DC for the World Cup draw too, and he’ll meet with Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum, though it’s not clear if that will be separate or together (or both). Canada is also rolling out a 25% global tariff on steel derivative products, which is expected to apply to 40% of U.S. imports. And 74 Representatives led by Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) sent a letter to USTR Greer urging him to hold Canada accountable for failing to live up to its USMCA dairy commitments.
News from the Rest of the World
- Australia: Trade Minister Don Farrell said his government is “not going to stop” pushing for additional tariff relief.
- India: Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal told an industry group that he’s “very optimistic and hopeful” that the U.S. and India will get to an initial agreement before the end of the year, with a team from USTR visiting India next week. Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting India right now too. Bloomberg reports that Trump Administration officials were briefed earlier this year on India’s role as the #2 supplier of fentanyl precursor chemicals.
- Indonesia: Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto told reporters the government hopes to finalize an agreement before the end of the year and that oil and gas imports would take place after a deal is signed. The Financial Times, however, reports that Indonesia is resisting “poison pill” provisions that the country feels threatens economic sovereignty. Minister Hartarto batted those reports down to local media, though, and said he’d be meeting with USTR Jamieson Greer this week.
- Malaysia: Ex-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed filed a police report against current Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, arguing that he did not receive proper consent from all governmental entities in order to negotiate an agreement with the U.S.
- Philippines: The government has softened proposed data localization requirements that were criticized as restrictive.
- Russia: Tariffs are complicating the Russia sanctions effort in Congress.
- Switzerland: Vice President Guy Parmelin predicted the 15% tariff rate would take effect in “early December.” The Swiss government may tighten its foreign investment rules. Swiss CEOs that visited with President Donald Trump talked to local media about the meeting, while a pair of Members of Parliament called for an investigation into the gifts given during the meeting.
- Taiwan: Premier Cho Jung-tai said in a speech (via Google Translate) that tariff negotiations are largely completed and an exchange of documents is underway to lock things in. He said his three goals were to reduce the IEEPA reciprocal tariff, eliminate additional tariffs, and obtain most-favored-nation status for the tech sector under Section 232. Worker training could be a part of the deal too. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the expectation is Taiwan will make a big investment pledge similar to other deals, but Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said companies will want assurances on land acquisition, water and electricity supply, and other aspects.
- Thailand: Reps. Rick Allen (R-GA) and Buddy Carter (R-GA) sent a letter to USTR Greer and Secretary Lutnick urging that tuna be included in a duty-free agreement.
- The UK: Trade Secretary Peter Kyle is weighing a visit to the U.S. before Christmas after plans for USTR Greer to visit the UK as part of his Europe trip fell through. The UK may impose a fee on low-value shipments.
Welcome to Costco. I Love You.
The waiting game continues at the Supreme Court, which means the guessing game continues on what might happen if SCOTUS overturns the tariffs. President Donald Trump put a finer point on that Wednesday, saying, “We’re waiting for a decision. We hope it’s going to be good, but if it’s not, we’ll do — we always find ways, you know, we find ways.”
This Bloomberg article lays out the usual suspects: More Section 301s, more Section 232s, and invoking Section 122 or 338. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked about the first three of those at an event this week too. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick mentioned all four in an interview with Bloomberg. I’ll re-up the list of what each of those statutes are below for the sake of completeness.
- Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Our old friend. On one hand, they could launch a bunch of new Section 301s. I’ll also note, though, that I believe there are some “dormant” Section 301s on digital services taxes that were launched during Trump 1.0 but paused (but not ended) under President Joe Biden that could be revived pretty quickly. By my count (someone please correct me if I’m wrong), the investigations launched were against Austria, Brazil, the Czech Republic, the EU, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and the UK. The Biden Administration only terminated Austria, France, India, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and the UK. That leaves Brazil, the Czech Republic, the EU, and Indonesia. It looks like the Section 301 tariffs on the EU and UK relating to the Boeing-Airbus WTO case were only suspended and not ended by the Biden Administration too.
- Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. There are plenty of those already launched and ready to go. And factoring in the inclusions process – not to mention the ability of the Commerce Secretary to add derivatives out of cycle – these tariffs have the ability to reach pretty far, as long as a product has steel, aluminum, copper, wood, semiconductors, critical minerals, or polysilicon; is an auto, truck, or plane part; and is robotics or industrial machinery.
- Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. This statute allows the President to impose tariffs on countries that are determined to have discriminated against U.S. commerce. A hook could be that most countries have higher tariffs than the U.S. I’ll note that Secretary Bessent has specifically mentioned this one.
- Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This statute allows the President to impose an up to 15% tariff on imports for 150 days, subject to an extension by Congress. To take such an action there must be a “large and serious” balance of payment deficit; an “imminent and significant” dollar depreciation; or coordination with other countries to correct an “international balance-of-payments disequilibrium.” This is a statute the Court of International Trade (CIT) suggested in its ruling as a better avenue than IEEPA.
- The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). One of the plaintiffs’ lawyers argued (Page 116 of the transcript) that tariffs are not allowed under IEEPA, but things like quotas and embargoes are. Tariff-rate quotas weren’t raised, but licensing fees were (Page 46). Could they do a rebrand or shuffle some things around?
Elsewhere on the legal beat, Costco grabbed headlines for joining the list of companies suing over the tariffs. Costco argued it needed to file suit because “even if the IEEPA duties and underlying executive orders are held unlawful by the Supreme Court, importers that have paid IEEPA duties, including Plaintiff, are not guaranteed a refund for those unlawfully collected tariffs in the absence of their own judgment and judicial relief.”
And in legal beat-adjacent news, more Members of Congress are publicly talking about the concept of codifying some of the agreements.
Quick Hits
- The U.S. is circulating a proposal at the WTO for a permanent moratorium on e-commerce duties
- The Wall Street Journal looked at the lack of sailor for America’s commercial fleet
- Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-HI) introduced H.R. 6286, the Indo-Pacific Partner and Ally Tariff Repeal Act, which would remove the tariffs on 40 countries in the Indo-Pacific region
- Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said partners in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP; née TPP) may add Costa Rica by the end of the year and begin accession talks with Uruguay
- President Donald Trump appointed David Shaprio, Chief Counsel of the Department of Commerce’s Investment Accelerator, as the U.S. government’s Class G (“Golden Share”) Director at U.S. Steel
Tarif-Fone
Tarif-Fone
Let me know if I missed anything. It’s not unpossible. IEEPA tariffs struck down by courts but in place pending appeal are italicized. There are lawsuits pending on some of the other IEEPA actions, but those have separate circumstances and arguments and may not be struck down themselves. I’m keeping the due date for the pharma 232 until we have something firmer.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
2/4/25 | China | 10% (20% from 3/4/25-11/10/25; 10% from 2/4/25-3/3/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Canada | 35% (25% from 3/4/25-7/31/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Mexico | 25% | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/2/25 | Countries importing Venezuelan oil (currently none) | 25% | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/4/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/5/25 | Countries not on this list (minus Canada, China, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Belarus) | 10% | ||
4/9/25 | China | 10% (was 125% from 4/10/25-5/3/25; was 84% on 4/9/25) | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/6/25 | Brazil | Additional tariff (plus exemptions effective November 13) | 40% | |
8/7/25 | ||||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
8/27/25 | India | 25% | ||
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
Effective 11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
Coming Attractions | ||||
Status | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
Effective 10/1/25(?) | All countries (probably) | 100% unless construction ongoing | ||
Due 10/28/25 | All countries | Inclusions process for Section 232 copper | ||
Comments due 12/1/25 (hearing 12/16/25; action due 10/24/26) | China | TBD | ||
Due 12/10/25 (hearing was 3/11/25) | China | TBD | ||
Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Effective 1/1/26 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10%, 30%, or 50% depending on product | ||
Due 1/20/26 (10/22/25 possible too) (comments due 5/16/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 1/26/26 (comments due 6/3/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 5/10/26 (comments due 9/9/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices | TBD | |
Due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 7/15/26 | Brazil | TBD | ||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions | 7.5% or 25% | |
Suspended until 11/10/26 | Shipping companies | |||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | 100% | ||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | Reciprocal tariff | 34% | |
TBD (no current deadline) | Canada | 25% | ||
TBD (no current deadline) | Mexico | 25% | ||
TBD | All countries (probably) | 100% | TBD (maybe Section 232) | |
TBD | Mexico | 30% | IEEPA | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for timber and lumber | TBD | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for truck parts | TBD | |
