ON DECK:
Clearing the decks because a lot happened over the weekend. TBD if more deck-clearing will be needed until Friday.
- U.S., China work on landing zones to present to Trump, Xi
- U.S. releases agreements with Malaysia, Cambodia and frameworks with Thailand, Vietnam
- Trump, Lula meet; Trump threatens another 10% tariff on Canada as Ontario (kinda) pulls ad; Trump lands in Japan, with Lutnick already there; U.S., South Korea both acknowledge continued problems with investment fund
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
Kuala Yummies
USTR Jamieson Greer told reporters in Kuala Lumpur that the U.S. and China are working on “final details” of a framework agreement to present to Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. President Trump had said last week that he wants a “complete deal,” and it sounds like there’s a lot in play here.
Reporting suggests discussions included export controls, rare earths, fentanyl trafficking and their related IEEPA tariffs, IEEPA reciprocal tariffs, and Section 301 port fees. Many of these topics were also confirmed in a Chinese Embassy X post. Other points of discussion were soybean purchases ( welcomed by the American Soybean Association); dropping the just-announced Section 301 investigation into China’s compliance with the Phase One agreement (Federal Register notice dropped btw); TikTok; and reciprocal Presidential visits in 2026. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said anything regarding Taiwan is off the table.
Let’s walk through details on a couple of those individual pieces. On China’s rare earth export controls, Secretary Bessent told ABC that China would “delay that for a year while they reexamine it.” Recall earlier reporting that the U.S. would “likely…demand that China rescind, not merely delay or water down” the controls. Secretary Bessent told CBS, “The threat of the 100% has gone away, as has the threat of the immediate imposition of the Chinese initiating a worldwide export control regime.”
On fentanyl, Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang said there was a “consensus” on fentanyl and suggested a reduction in the IEEPA fentanyl tariff could be coming. Secretary Bessent told ABC that China “would begin to help us with the precursor chemicals” for fentanyl.
At the end of the day, though, nothing is set in stone until the two leaders meet. As the aforementioned Chinese Embassy X post noted, all this is subject to “the domestic approval processes of each side.”
Before closing, let’s hop back to the rare earth export controls really quickly to check in on what the EU’s up to. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hinted that the EU is prepared to use its Anti-Coercion Instrument, while Chinese officials will visit Brussels this week to try to defuse tensions. The German government (and, I assume others), meanwhile, is flying blind in terms of what companies are handing over to China in order to secure an export license.
And two last things before we close out the China portion. Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu met with a visiting U.S. delegation for a security dialogue. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) applauded the Section 301 investigation into China’s compliance with the Phase One agreement.
Phnominal Thais Lead Adminh to Announce Lump(ur) of Four Deals
If you scanned the local Southeast Asian headlines as one does, you might’ve picked up in recent weeks that some deals could be sealed during the Malaysian leg of President Donald Trump’s Asia trip. And we got a quartet:
- Malaysia Agreement: Joint statement here, text here, text with schedules here, fact sheet here, critical minerals memorandum of understanding here
- Cambodia Agreement: Joint statement here, text here, fact sheet here
- Thailand Framework: Joint statement here, fact sheet here
- Vietnam Framework: Joint statement here, fact sheet here
Note the terminology of Malaysia and Cambodia as agreements, while Thailand and Vietnam are called frameworks.
You might recall things went a little haywire on the Vietnam deal back in July, and things had been pretty quiet on that front lately. In fact, heading into the Malaysia trip, Politico ran an article saying that President Trump was not expected to announce progress in Vietnam talks. But I guess either something changed or they got bad intel.
Malaysia was apparently trying to secure a last-minute Section 232 chip tariff exemption, but President Trump told Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim they’d deal with that “at the appropriate time.” And there’s no tariff announced at the moment, so I guess that just means the status quo abides.
I’ll see about doing a deeper dive this week, but we’ll stop there for now.
News from the Rest of the World
- Brazil: Presidents Donald Trump and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva met in Malaysia in what the former called a “great meeting” and the latter called a “surprisingly good” meeting. President Lula said a “definitive solution” could come within days, but President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, “We’ll see what happens.” President Lula reportedly gave President Trump a document laying out arguments against the U.S. tariffs and why it was based on “mistaken information.” USTR Jamieson Greer, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Foreign Affairs Minister Mauro Vieira, and Deputy Trade Minister Marcio Rosa were set to have follow-up conversations.
- Canada: President Trump truthed that Canada would face a 10% tariff “over and above what they are paying now” due to the ad being aired by Ontario. We don’t have any additional details on the how or when of that. He also told reporters en route to Japan that he didn’t think he’d talk with Canada “for a while.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he’d pull down the ad, “effective Monday.” Which means that it did air during Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. Prime Minister Mark Carney has been tight-lipped thus far on the affaire de l’ad. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said in a statement that Senate Democrats would force “votes” (plural) on Canada and other tariffs. Canada may cut the number of tariff-free vehicles that Stellantis and GM can import after recent capacity cuts from the two companies. House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA) released a statement panning the U.S.-Canada talk cutoff.
- Colombia: The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on President Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego, his wife and son, and a “close associate” due to counternarcotics issues.
- India: Indian refiner Reliance Industries, India’s biggest buyer of Russian oil, bought from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the U.S. after the recent Russia sanctions.
- Japan: President Trump landed in Japan and made positive comments about the visit while en route aboard Air Force One, flagging shipbuilding in particular. He had a phone call with new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Saturday to congratulate her on her new position. PM Sanae called it a “good and candid conversation.” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick met with chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa in Tokyo yesterday. So I guess he’s in Asia too, just not traveling with Trump? It appears the conversations were related to the $550 billion investment fund. 20 House Republicans, led by Reps. Adrian Smith (R-NE) and Ron Estes (R-KS) sent a letter to President Donald Trump urging him to raise Japan’s Mobile Software Competition Act during his meeting with PM Sanae.
- South Korea: President Lee Jae Myung acknowledged that the U.S. and South Korea remain stuck on just about every aspect of the $350 billion investment fund: “The method of investment, the amount of investment, the timeline and how we will share the losses and divide the dividends — all of these remain sticking points.” President Trump is due in South Korea Wednesday, so it’s no clear if an agreement will be reached before then. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doesn’t think it’ll be ready by Wednesday.
Tarif-Fone
Let me know if I missed anything. It’s not unpossible. IEEPA tariffs struck down by courts but in place pending appeal are italicized. There are lawsuits pending on some of the other IEEPA actions, but those have separate circumstances and arguments and may not be struck down themselves. I’m keeping the due date for the pharma 232 until we have something firmer.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
2/4/25 | China | 20% (10% from 2/4/25-3/3/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Canada | 35% (25% from 3/4/25-7/31/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Mexico | 25% | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/2/25 | Countries importing Venezuelan oil (currently none) | 25% | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/4/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/5/25 | Countries not on this list (minus Canada, China, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Belarus) | 10% | ||
4/9/25 | China | 10% (was 125% from 4/10/25-5/3/25; was 84% on 4/9/25) | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/6/25 | Brazil | 40% | ||
8/7/25 | ||||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
8/27/25 | India | 25% | ||
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
10/14/25 | Shipping companies | |||
Coming Attractions | ||||
Status | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
10/1/25(?) | All countries | Inclusion request window for Section 232 auto parts opens | 25% | |
Effective 10/1/25(?) | All countries (probably) | 100% unless construction ongoing | ||
Due 10/28/25 | All countries | Inclusions process for Section 232 copper | ||
10/29/25ish | Mexico | 30% | IEEPA | |
Threatened 11/1/25 | China | 100% | TBD (IEEPA probably) | |
Effective 11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
11/5/25 | All countries | Oral arguments at Supreme Court in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump | Variable | |
11/9/25 | China | 100% | ||
Comments due 11/10/25 | China | Up to 150% | ||
Effective 11/10/25 | China | Reciprocal tariff | 34% | |
Comments due 11/19/25 | Nicaragua | 100% | ||
Expires 11/29/25 | China | Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions | 7.5% or 25% | |
Comments due 12/1/25 (hearing 12/16/25; action due 10/24/26) | China | TBD | ||
Due 12/10/25 (hearing was 3/11/25) | China | TBD | ||
Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Effective 1/1/26 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10%, 30%, or 50% depending on product | ||
Due 1/20/26 (comments due 5/16/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 1/20/26 (10/22/25 possible too) (comments due 5/16/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 1/26/26 (comments due 6/3/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 5/10/26 (comments due 9/9/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices | TBD | |
Due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 7/15/26 | Brazil | TBD | ||
TBD (no current deadline) | Canada | 25% | ||
TBD (no current deadline) | Mexico | 25% | ||
TBD | All countries (probably) | 100% | TBD (maybe Section 232) | |
