ON DECK
- Latest on Iran-related supply chain disruptions
- Trump China visit remains on track
- Canada wants comprehensive deal; U.S., EU close to critical mineral deal; India negotiating team visiting U.S. next week; Greer heading to Mexico Monday; Switzerland hoping for deal by July
- IEEPA refund portal goes live Monday
- Comment deadlines pass for 301 investigations
- Updating Section 232 metal tariff reshuffle stats and Window 2 inclusions outcomes
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
Iran Sitrep
Oil prices are cratering today for reasons we’ll get into. WTI was in the low-$90s/barrel most of the week but is now around $83, while Brent was in the mid-$90s/barrel most of the week but is now around $90. Gasoline prices are [checks notes] down, falling to $4.05/gallon (was $4.15 last Thursday), while diesel ticked up to $5.55 (was $5.66 last Thursday).
Oil is down because President Donald Trump announced this morning that “THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN.” And, importantly, Iran said the same thing. The opening came on the heels of the announcement of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. The ceasefire came on the heels of a blockade of the Strait (per President Trump’s truth, the blockade remains in effect for Iran only, not others). The blockade came on the heels of failed talks in Pakistan. I think that successfully yada yada yadas the past week on Iran.
A few other points before moving on, though. The U.S. had been working on clearing mines from the Strait earlier in the week, but President Trump truthed this morning that Iran will also be joining the effort. The U.S. government program for Strait insurance is nearly ready. The Treasury Department threatened secondary sanctions against financial institutions supporting Iran. There were a few reports that Chinese military sales were imminent, but President Trump said those were not happening. He also exchanged letters with pen pal Chinese President Xi Jinping on Iran this week.
Have You Ever Seen a Chevy, Imposing a Levy, Down by the Bei(jing)?
In addition to the Iran updates above, we have other China news to track.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that President Donald Trump’s May 14-15 visit to China remains on track. But ahead of the visit, Chinese purchases of soy have dropped. China also announced new retaliatory powers and is weighing limiting exports of solar panel equipment to the U.S.
The Wall Street Journal reports that after the October meeting in South Korea between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, the Administration pulled back on trade actions – something that’s definitely been palpable since that meeting. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick now even personally signs off on any China-related actions.
A few last bits of cleanup before moving on. The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party held a hearing on AI chip smuggling to China in conjunction with the release of a report on the topic. And Ford expects to partner with more Chinese automakers.
News from the Rest of the World
- Canada: Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Canada wants to resolve all the trade disputes at once as opposed to a series of one-off deals. The Commerce Department is weighing cutting the combined antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) on Canadian softwood lumber by about 10%. 41 Senators led by Sens. Steve Daines (R-MT), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), John Boozman (R-AR), and Raphael Warnock (D-GA) sent a letter to USTR Jamieson Greer supporting USMCA’s benefits for ag, encouraging consultation with Congress, and urging strong ag market access.
- The EU: The U.S. and EU are reportedly close to a critical minerals deal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Commissioner for Economy and Productivity Valdis Dombrovskis, as well as the Finance Ministers from France and Italy to discuss critical minerals, among other topics.
- India: A negotiating team from India will visit the U.S. next week for trade talks, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio will make a visit to India in May.
- Japan: Secretary Bessent met with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to discuss investment screening, among other topics.
- Mexico: USTR Greer will travel to Mexico next Monday for USMCA talks, including on steel, aluminum, auto, ag, rules of origin, and China. A Mexican delegation led by Deputy Economy Minister Luis Rosendo Gutierrez and Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegue was in DC this week for technical talks. Secretary Bessent met with Finance Secretary Edgar Amador Zamora to discuss critical minerals, among other topics. 41 Senators led by Sens. Steve Daines (R-MT), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), John Boozman (R-AR), and Raphael Warnock (D-GA) sent a letter to USTR Jamieson Greer supporting USMCA’s benefits for ag, encouraging consultation with Congress, and urging strong ag market access. The U.S. launched another USMCA Rapid Response Labor Mechanism dispute with Mexico.
- Poland: Finance Minister Andrzej Domański met with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, though it’s not clear if tariffs came up.
- South Korea: Despite tariffs, the math still maths for GM to make some autos in South Korea.
- Switzerland: Anonymous sources told Bloomberg that Switzerland hopes to lock down a U.S. deal by July.
- The UK: President Donald Trump told Sky News said, “We gave [the UK] a good trade deal. Better than I had to. Which can always be changed.” The House of Commons’ Business and Trade Committee launched an inquiry into the U.S.-UK trade deal. Still waiting for word on if they also launched a separate inquiry on the correct pronunciation of aluminum. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves met with Secretary Bessent in the U.S., discussing critical minerals, among other topics.
Court Corner
In a series of CSMS messages, CBP announced that its Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) for IEEPA refunds will go live on Monday, April 20. The messages have instructions on how to register, a training video and guide, and other information. As a reminder, this system won’t immediately cover every scenario, but CBP will add functionality over time. But CBP also noted that companies will have to opt-in to the electronic system to get a refund – no paper refund requests allowed.
In a couple of other cases of note, the Court of International Trade held its hearing on the challenge to the Section 122 tariffs. And a Department of Justice filing in the IEEPA de minimis case argued that the SCOTUS decision had no bearing on this action.
We’re Still Having Fun, and You’re Still the 301
The deadline for comments in the 301 investigations into overcapacity and forced labor passed this week. The overcapacity docket received 812 comments, while the forced labor docket saw 456. The submissions included government submissions – see, for example, Singapore (former and latter), Japan (former and latter), Indonesia (former and latter), and Cambodia (former and latter). That’s not to mention plenty of domestic industry associations from the various countries weighing in.
As a reminder, the next steps are an April 28 hearing for the forced labor investigation and a May 5 hearing for the overcapacity investigation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a crowd at a Wall Street Journal event this week that the plan remains to put tariffs “back in place at the previous level by beginning of July.” As a further reminder, the Section 122 tariffs expire July 24.
Down the Rabbit Hole So Far Even the Easter Bunny Was All Like “Dang”
I’m now in Week 3 of digging into the Section 232 steel, aluminum, and copper tariff reshuffling. Why? Because I’m a glutton for punishment, and I suppose transparency too. This week, I’m going to cover a correction on the Window 1 and 2 inclusion stats from last week; some deeper Window 2 inclusion stats; and the results of as full of a cross-referencing as I could muster on the origin of every tariff code on the redo list.
Ok first up is a correction from last week’s edition. As I dug deeper into the data, I realized some of my stats on which steel and aluminum inclusions requests were kept vs. jettisoned were incomplete because the numbers only accounted for one-for-one tariff code matches. I ended up finding some codes that were broadened (ie a 10-digit code bumped up to an 8-digit) and others were broken out (ie an 8-digit code broken out into 10-digit codes) that weren’t captured in the stats.
So let’s get to the data:
- Of the 445 approved Window 1 tariff codes, 315 remained subject to a tariff on some level, while 130 were removed. (Previously stated 303 and 142 respectively)
- 90 of the removals were in Chapters 1-71. 40 were in the more traditional metal chapters (72+). (Previously stated 52)
- 118 tariff codes from Window 2 requests were added on some level. (Previously 65) 20 of those were already approved in Window 1, yielding a grand total of 98 Window 2 tariff code requests approved. (Previously 17 and 48 respectively) All approved Window 2 tariff code requests were in the traditional metal chapters (72+).
Next up, I think it’s worth doing a deeper dive into Window 2 for transparency and posterity. Because, as Tupac famously said, “I see no changes on the Window 2 steel and aluminum inclusions docket” (or something like that). Indeed, I don’t see anything indicating that Commerce is marking which Window 2 requests were approved or not on the docket. So I’m going to make an effort to put something into the public sphere based on what I could track down.
The attached PDF has the Window 2 tariff code requests that were approved in some way shape or form (exactly, broadened, or split – and sometimes a combination). There’s also a link to the underlying request(s) responsible for the tariff code request. Everything in the PDF was approved, which is to say that any Window 2 tariff code requests not in the PDF were denied.
Finally, I was curious if any tariff codes were added outside of any processes. This includes the Windows 1 and 2 inclusions and a bunch of CSMS messages – 3/11/25 Steel, 3/11/25 Aluminum, 6/20/25 Steel, and 7/31/25 Copper.
After cross-referencing all of those against the redo list, I found 4 tariff codes that I couldn’t attribute to any of those sources (but that doesn’t mean there isn’t something I missed somewhere along the way!):
- 7325.10.0035
- 7612.90.10
- 8426.49.00
- 8504.22.00
Ok. After I flag that the Commerce Department released a list of positive statements on the reshuffling, I think I’m officially closing the book on this.
Quick Hits
- USTR Jamieson Greer appeared before the House Appropriations Committee’s Commerce, Justice, and Science Subcommittee yesterday; and will appear before the House Ways and Means Committee next Wednesday and the Senate Finance Committee next Thursday
- The Federal Trade Commission announced a “Made in the USA” enforcement action
- I missed this from a few weeks ago, but a Department of Homeland Security Interim Final Rule on Low-Value Shipments was sent to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) on March 27
What’s the Dealies, Yo?
This is my stab at building a list of trade deals (specifically Frameworks, Agreements on Free Trade, and a few others with one-off nomenclatures). If I missed something, please let me know! I’ll add that the Council on Foreign Relations also has a tracker.
Country | Type | Date |
Argentina | 2/5/26 | |
Bangladesh | 2/9/26 | |
Cambodia | 10/26/25 | |
Ecuador | 3/13/26 | |
El Salvador | 1/29/26 | |
The EU | 8/21/25 | |
Guatemala | 1/30/26 | |
India | 2/6/26 | |
Indonesia | 2/19/26 | |
Japan | 9/4/25 | |
Malaysia | 10/26/25 | |
North Macedonia | 2/12/26 | |
South Korea | 11/13/25 | |
Switzerland/ Liechtenstein | 11/14/25 | |
Taiwan | 2/12/26 | |
Thailand | 10/26/25 | |
The Philippines | 7/22/25 | |
The UK | 6/16/25 | |
Vietnam | 10/26/25 |
Tarif-Fone
If I missed something or got something wrong, please let me know. It’s not unpossible.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/4/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
1/15/26 | All countries | Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in certain applications | 25% | |
2/24/26 | All countries | 10% (but maybe 15% at some point) | ||
Effective 4/6/26 | All countries | |||
Coming Attractions | ||||
Status | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
Report due 1/26/26 | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 3/28/26 | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 3/28/26 | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Hearing 4/28/26 | TBD | |||
Hearing 5/5/26 | Structural Excess Capacity and Production in Manufacturing Sectors | TBD | ||
Report due 5/10/26 | All countries | TBD | ||
Report due 5/30/26 | All countries | Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices | TBD | |
Report due 5/30/26 | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 7/15/26 | Brazil | TBD | ||
Expire 7/24/26 | All countries | 10% (but maybe 15% at some point) | ||
Effective 7/31/26 | ||||
Effective 9/29/26 | Companies not in Annex II or III | |||
Action due 10/24/26 | China | TBD | ||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions | 7.5% or 25% | |
Suspended until 11/10/26 | Shipping companies | |||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | 100% | ||
Effective 1/1/27 | Nicaragua | 10% (15% on 1/1/28) | ||
Effective 1/1/27 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10%, 30%, or 50% depending on product | ||
6/23/27 | China | TBD (announced at least 30 days in advance) | ||
TBD | All countries (probably) | 100% | TBD (maybe Section 232) | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for timber and lumber | TBD | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for truck parts | TBD | |
TBD | Canada | 50% | TBD | |
