ON DECK
- SCOTUS holds IEEPA doesn’t authorize tariffs, and I’m leaving the rest for later
- U.S., Indonesia announce Agreement on Reciprocal Trade
- Carney names new Chief Trade Negotiator to the U.S.; Taiwan arms sale looms over China visit; U.S., Ecuador say ART talks done; European Parliament add-ons could present challenges to deal; Indian delegation to visit U.S. to finalize deal text; U.S., Japan announce first projects under $550 billion investment fund
- Devil in details of last week’s report on potential steel, aluminum, and copper changes suggests more of a restructuring than a rollback, with possibly even higher tariffs on net for some products
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
Welp There Goes Our Collective Friday
I was all ready to try to get this email out before the SCOTUS 10:00am decision drop, but I figured what the heck maybe I’ll wait.
Aaaand it turns out today was the IEEPA decision, which you can read here. I’m also attaching in the (likely) event the SCOTUS website crashes. Initial reports per the SCOTUSblog livechat are that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, in a 6-3 decision authored by Chief Justice John Roberts. I’ll do a roundup at the end of the day once we know more on reactions, Plan B, refunds, etc. In the meantime, you all have 170 pages of reading to do.
Good Golly, Ms. Bali
Expectations heading into this week were that an Indonesia deal would be during President Prabowo Subianto’s visit to DC. And we got it, so let’s dig into the details. You can read the USTR press release here, the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) text here, tariff schedule here, and fact sheet here.
Here are a few highlights from the fact sheet:
- The U.S. will maintain a 19% IEEPA reciprocal tariff rate and reduce to 0% certain Annex III products.
- The U.S. will establish of a mechanism for 0% tariffs on some textile and apparel imports, contingent on the quantity of U.S. exports of inputs (cotton, etc.) to Indonesia.
- The U.S. made no commitments on any Section 232 tariffs but will “positively consider” the ART as part of investigations and actions.
- Indonesia will eliminate tariffs on 99% of goods, with specific flags on ag and seafood, health products, tech products, auto products, and chemicals.
- Indonesia will address non-tariff barriers, with specific flags on local content requirements, auto standards, medical device and pharmaceutical standards, labeling requirements, pre-shipment requirements, intellectual property issues, and ag standards.
- Indonesia commits to eliminating digital trade barriers and supporting a permanent moratorium on e-commerce duties at the WTO.
- Indonesia will join the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity and take action to address global steel overcapacity.
- Indonesia will remove export restrictions on industrial commodities, including critical minerals.
- Indonesia will adopt and implement a forced labor import ban and stronger labor standards.
- The U.S. and Indonesia will cooperate on supply chain resilience, duty evasion, export controls, and investment security.
- Indonesia will purchase $15 billion of U.S. energy commodities, $13.5 billion of Boeing aircraft, and $4.5 billion of U.S. ag products. Freeport-McMoRan will extend and expand its mining operations in Indonesia, generating $10 billion in annual revenue.
U.S. and Indonesia companies also inked 11 deals worth $38.4 billion this week, though it sounds like there might be some overlap with that last bullet above.
Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto told local media that they successfully jettisoned defense and security issues from the deal, keeping it to trade only. He added that the U.S. accepted 90% of what Indonesia asked for but wouldn’t elaborate on what was rejected. I’m going to be keen to watch local media reports on this because almost immediately after the Framework was announced, we saw Indonesian officials seemingly walking back/tamping down concerns on things like local content requirements and raw mineral exports.
News from the Rest of the World
- Cambodia: Prime Minister Hun Manet met with USTR Jamieson Greer this week in DC, with discussions on ag and industrial exports.
- Brazil: Brazil is raising concerns that the U.S.-Argentina Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) runs afoul of Mercosur.
- Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney named Janice Charette as the new Chief Trade Negotiator to the U.S. as the USMCA review ramps up. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc visited Mexico this week, telling reporters the two sides don’t have a Plan B sans the U.S. The Senate is running into some Senate problems on a potential vote on the House-passed resolution of disapproval of the Canada IEEPA tariffs. The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) launched its third USMCA auto rules of origin review.
- China: President Xi Jinping has been pressing the U.S. on a potential arms sale to Taiwan as President Donald Trump’s April visit looms ahead. It appears that Federal Register notice that was going to name a bunch of Chinese tech companies as aiding the Chinese military is off? Ford’s CEO met with Trump Administration officials last month to discuss Chinese automakers building in the U.S. through joint ventures. China and Mexico held talks last week over, among other things, Mexico’s decision to put tariffs on countries with which it doesn’t have a trade agreement.
- Ecuador: USTR announced that the U.S. and Ecuador “substantially concluded” ART negotiations, with an agreement signed “in the coming weeks.”
- The EU: When asked about the European Parliament’s sunset and safeguard proposals and anonymous “U.S. trade official” told Inside U.S. Trade, “It’s unclear how new measures that may only exacerbate the problem fit in with the EU’s broad commitment as part of our trade deal to reduce [the trade] surplus.” American automakers sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and USTR Greer criticizing an EU effort to eliminate a regulation that allows imports of pickups and SUVs that meet U.S. but not EU regulations. The U.S. is threatening retaliation if the EU adopts a Buy European weapons proposal.
- India: A delegation from India will visit the U.S. next week to finalize details for the Framework. Russian state media say India will keep buying Russian oil, while U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said the U.S. is facilitating an Indian purchase of Venezuelan oil. India’s Coast Guard seized three sanctioned tankers allegedly involved in illicit oil transfers.
- Japan: The U.S. and Japan announced the first $36 billion in projects under the $550 billion investment fund (press release here, fact sheet here, truth post here).
- Taiwan: House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) released a statement greeting last week’s Taiwan ART, while USTR released a compilation of other laudatory statements.
- Thailand: Bloomberg reports that Thailand is being used as a through point for Chinese drone exports to Russia.
- The UK: President Trump truthed that the UK should not lose control of Diego Garcia.
- Uzbekistan: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with USTR Greer this week in DC, with discussions on deepening economic and strategic relations.
- Vietnam: Acting Trade Minister Le Manh Hung met with Commerce Department officials, as Vietnam Airlines placed an order with Boeing as part of the Framework.
Amid Influx of Gold, Silver, Bronze, Questions About Steel, Aluminum, and Copper
There were a few more stories about last week’s Financial Times report that the U.S. may adjust some the structure of the Section 232 tariffs for steel, aluminum, and maybe copper. And whereas Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House trade advisor Peter Navarro generally said no way Jos?, USTR Jamieson Greer said maybe Maeby. While he told CNBC on Monday that the tariffs had been “very successful,” he added, “You may want to sometimes adjust the way some of the tariffs are applied for compliance purposes…We’ve heard stories of companies that have had to hire extra people for compliance. We’re not trying to have people do so much bean counting they’re not running their company correctly.”
And yes, the Financial Times headline declared this a “roll back.” Yes, USTR Greer is preaching simplicity. But if you were planning a celebratory party for whatever is announced, you may want to channel more Dwight Schrute than Leslie Knope.
Let’s first recall that the Financial Times article suggested they might get rid of some number of Section 232 steel and aluminum derivatives tariffs, end the inclusions process, and start new Section 232s on specific products.
A follow-on Wall Street Journal article included commentary from “people families with the administration’s plans.” Those people described a process whereby different steel and aluminum derivative products would be sorted into categories based on their metal content and assigned a tariff on the whole product. They gave a few examples: A consumer-facing kitchen accessory with low steel and aluminum content would get 15%; factory machinery, appliance parts, and other intermediate goods could get 25%; and products made nearly entirely of steel or aluminum (beams, pipes, etc.) would get the full 50%. As the article notes, under this new structure, “The amount paid in tariffs could actually be higher than it is currently.”
As the article also notes, the plan isn’t final, and President Donald Trump hasn’t signed off on anything, but there you have it.
Quick Hits
- The White House released a Maritime Action Plan pursuant to an April Executive Order that calls for, among other things, a fee on foreign-built vessels serving U.S. ports, expanded cargo preference requirements, and cooperation with South Korea and Japan on shipbuilding
- Canada, the EU, and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) are working together toward an economic alliance that includes a common understanding on rules of origin
- Job website Indeed reported 22% more trade compliance job postings in December 2025 compared to December 2024, and 41% more compared to December 2019
- USTR’s Special 301 Subcommittee held a hearing on Wednesday
What’s the Dealies, Yo?
This is my stab at building a list of trade deals (specifically Frameworks, Agreements on Free Trade, and a few others with one-off nomenclatures). If I missed something, please let me know! I’ll add that the Council on Foreign Relations also has a tracker.
Country | Type | Date |
Argentina | 2/5/26 | |
Bangladesh | 2/9/26 | |
Cambodia | 10/26/25 | |
Ecuador | 11/13/25 | |
El Salvador | 1/29/26 | |
Guatemala | 1/30/26 | |
India | 2/6/26 | |
Indonesia | 2/19/26 | |
Japan | 9/4/25 | |
Malaysia | 10/26/25 | |
North Macedonia | 2/12/26 | |
South Korea | 11/13/25 | |
Switzerland/ Liechtenstein | 11/14/25 | |
Taiwan | 2/12/26 | |
Thailand | 10/26/25 | |
The EU | 8/21/25 | |
The Philippines | 7/22/25 | |
The UK | 6/16/25 | |
Vietnam | 10/26/25 |
Tarif-Fone
Let me know if I missed anything. It’s not unpossible. IEEPA tariffs struck down by courts but in place pending appeal are italicized. There are lawsuits pending on some of the other IEEPA actions, but those have separate circumstances and arguments and may not be struck down themselves.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
2/4/25 | China | 10% (20% from 3/4/25-11/10/25; 10% from 2/4/25-3/3/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Canada | 35% (25% from 3/4/25-7/31/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Mexico | 25% | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/2/25 | Countries importing Venezuelan oil (currently none) | 25% | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/4/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/5/25 | Countries not on this list (minus Canada, China, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Belarus) | 10% | ||
4/9/25 | China | 10% (was 125% from 4/10/25-5/3/25; was 84% on 4/9/25) | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/6/25 | Brazil | Additional tariff (plus exemptions effective November 13) | 40% | |
8/7/25 | ||||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
1/15/26 | All countries | Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in certain applications | 25% | |
1/30/26 | Countries exporting oil to Cuba (currently none) | TBD | ||
2/6/26 | Countries doing business with Iran (currently none) | 25% | ||
Coming Attractions | ||||
Status | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
Effective 10/1/25(?) | All countries (probably) | 100% unless construction ongoing | ||
Due 10/28/25 | All countries | Inclusions process for Section 232 copper | 50% | |
Report due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 1/26/26 (comments due 6/3/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 5/10/26 (comments due 9/9/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Report due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices | TBD | |
Report due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 7/15/26 | Brazil | TBD | ||
Action due 10/24/26 (hearing 12/16/25) | China | TBD | ||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions | 7.5% or 25% | |
Suspended until 11/10/26 | Shipping companies | |||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | 100% | ||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | Reciprocal tariff | 34% | |
Effective 1/1/27 | Nicaragua | 10% (15% on 1/1/28) | ||
Effective 1/1/27 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10%, 30%, or 50% depending on product | ||
6/23/27 | China | TBD (announced at least 30 days in advance) | ||
TBD (no current deadline) | Canada | 25% | ||
TBD (no current deadline) | Mexico | 25% | ||
TBD | Mexico | 30% | IEEPA | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | 100% | TBD (maybe Section 232) | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for timber and lumber | TBD | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for truck parts | TBD | |
TBD | Countries doing business with Iran | TBD (probably all imports) | 25% | TBD (probably IEEPA) |
TBD | Canada | 50% | TBD | |
