ON DECK
- No 122 15% tariff yet as complications arise
- No refund clarity as the legal process gets started
- No 232s and 301s as plans come together
- No funny stuff as countries weigh next moves
- But Trump locks in China visit for March 31-April 2
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
122 or 10 to 15
We’ll start with a sitrep on post-SCOTUS coverage, and we’ll start the starting where we ended last time: Section 122.
CBP issued a CSMS message implementing the 10% tariff, effective February 24, and another one maintaining the de minimis suspension, per last Friday’s Executive Orders.
But are the 122 tariffs going from 10% to 15% or what? The literal answer remains no, but the theoretical answer remains yes. An anonymous White House official told Inside U.S. Trade that the increase to 15% is “being worked on still” and added that President Donald Trump hasn’t changed his mind on the increase. USTR Jamieson Greer told Bloomberg TV earlier this week the President Trump would sign a proclamation “raising [the Section 122 tariff rate] to 15% where appropriate.”
“Where appropriate” sticks out, doesn’t it? That’s because one likely reason for the delay is that the U.S. committed in writing to a 10% tariff for the UK and had been charging that for others like Australia. I’m reliably told that 15% is a bigger number than 10%. Therefore, problem. UK Trade Secretary Peter Kyle said it was his “belief” that the U.S.-UK deal “remains intact.” Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell called the new tariffs “not justified.”
The EU, meanwhile, contends that a 15% rate could upset the U.S. commitment not to charge more than 15% on most goods, pushing about 7% of EU exports above a 15% tariff rate. So the European Parliament went ahead and decided to once again hit pause on its approval of the deal. Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said a March vote remains the target, though.
All this to say, the 15% 122 tariff seems to still have some kinks to work out.
On the legal front, USTR General Counsel Jennifer Thornton said, “We expect that [the Section 122] tariff will be challenged in court, but we hope that it survives for the full 150-day period.” That comes amid the continuing volleys from legal eagles as towhether they’re legal in the first place.
President Donald Trump said he doesn’t need Congress to approve these tariffs, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said he’d vote against an extension beyond 150 days anyway. Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D-CA) introduced a bill to end Section 122 altogether.
Refundamentals
Ok so what about refunds? Also complicated.
Legal briefs flew this week as lawyers looked to officially kick off the process of trying to claw back refunds. And more companies, including FedEx, sued for refunds. But Politico reports that Administration officials are trying to figure out some legal maneuvers to keep the money. That includes pressure campaigns to keep companies from filing claims and allowing expedited refunds for companies that forego some of the money, among others. The Executive Functions Substack breaks down the state of play with refunds too.
Could Congress step in and force the issue? That’s what Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) think, introducing bills compelling refunds on the IEEPA tariffs. A few letters urging swift refunds hit Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s inbox too. But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) tossed some cold water on a vote: “The White House is going to sort that out and we have to give them the time and space to do it. This is an unprecedented event, so there’s no playbook to follow.” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) told Bloomberg, “I don’t see a pathway in Congress” for refunds.
The Other Plan Bs
The Section 122 tariffs are supposed to create space for the Administration to run some Section 232 and 301 investigations. We don’t have any of those yet, but details continue to trickle out.
On the 232s, Commerce Undersecretary for International Trade, William Kimmitt, told a Washington International Trade Association (WITA) event this week, “It’s certainly likely that more 232s will come out.” The Wall Street Journal reported that 232 investigations could cover things like “large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic piping, industrial chemicals and power grid and telecom equipment.” The anonymous “people familiar with the plans” also told the WSJ that they’re still working on changes to the steel and aluminum tariffs as well, noting the proposal to create tariff tiers based on the steel/aluminum content of the item.
On the 301s, USTR General Counsel Jennifer Thornton told the same WITA event, “The 301 statute permits the USTR to impose tariffs to try and encourage our trading partners to eliminate acts, policies and practices that we conclude are unreasonable or discriminatory. So the goal is not revenue generation, but really leverage.” She added that the investigations may not even result in tariffs if it finds that the country is addressing trade barriers. USTR Jamieson Greer struck a similar tone in a Fox Business interview, saying 301 tariffs “would really only happen if the countries reneged on their deals or doubled down on these unfair trade practices.”
In apparently coincidental timing, importers in a long-running Section 301 lawsuit petitioned the Supreme Court to overturn the List 3 and 4a tariffs and limit tariff modifications.
System of a Deal
This will be the fly-over of the events around the world, but with a particular eye toward the state of various deals in the wake of the SCOTUS ruling. We already covered Australia, the EU, and the UK, but the rest are below.
President Donald Trump truthed a warning to countries hoping to use the SCOTUS decision as a way to get out of tariffs: “Any Country that wants to ‘play games’ with the ridiculous supreme court decision…will be met with a much higher Tariff.” USTR Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have been fanning out to ensure everyone holds to their deal. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), meanwhile, said that Congress wasn’t likely to codify any tariffs that would lock in deals.
With that, here’s the fly-over:
- Angola: The Commerce Department designated Angola as a non-market economy as part of an antidumping investigation.
- Canada: USTR Greer said the U.S. and Canada may meet soon on the USMCA review. The Trump Administration ups pressure on Canada to make concessions on dairy, liquor sales, and other issues as it even weighs a USMCA without the C. Transport Canada approved Gulfstream G700 and G800 aircraft that had been at the heart of a tariff threat. It approved the G500 and G600 on February 15.
- Guatemala: Vice Minister of Investment and Cooperation Valeria Prado Mancilla told a group, “We have been in contact with USTR and they say ‘Everything should continue as planned,’ so we have faith in that…The government of Guatemala, we believe in the agreement, we believe it also benefits us, so we are with the full intention to implement all the commitments that we’ve made. So I suspect and I hope things will go just as planned.”
- India: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made a surprise stop in India. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal told reporters that the joint statement “has categorically said that should the circumstances change, the deal would be re-balanced.” Pre-SCOTUS, he said he expects the U.S.-India deal to be signed in March and implemented in April.
- Indonesia: President Prabowo Subianto ordered a review of the SCOTUS decision to study potential risks. Indonesia launched a $5 billion semiconductor initiative that’s related to the U.S.-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART). The domestic nickel industry are wary about the ART’s impact. USTR released a compilation of positive statements for the ART.
- Israel: Israel is weighing concessions on ag products to ease U.S. tariffs.
- Japan: Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa spoke with Secretary Lutnick and called on the U.S. to ensure that Japan is not worse off under the Plan B regime. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned of the growing threat of Chinese coercion in the East China Sea and South China Sea.
- Kenya: The U.S. and Kenya held their first round of talks for a Framework.
- Laos: The Commerce Department designated Laos as a non-market economy as part of an antidumping investigation.
- Mexico: Mexico killed a cartel leader, which isn’t a directly trade-related story, but it’s worth flagging because tariff threats have been levelled to pressure Mexico to get tougher on the cartels.
- New Zealand: Trade Minister Todd McClay told local media, “It’s a little bit of wait and see.”
- Panama: Panama took over operations of the ports on either side of the Panama Canal that had been operated by Hong Kong company CK Hutchison.
- South Korea: E-commerce company Coupang says it sat for a deposition with the House Judiciary Committee.
- Taiwan: The main opposition is pressuring President Lai Ching-te to renegotiate the U.S.-Taiwan ART in the wake of the SCOTUS decision.
Lock It In
President Donald Trump’s visit to China will take place March 31-April 2 – or at least that’s what the U.S. said. China tends to wait a while to confirm these things to make sure everything is just so heading into the visit. We don’t know where he’ll go or deliverables yet.
The visit will also have to survive the SCOTUS reverberations and a potential Taiwan arms sale. On the former, China threatened to take “all necessary measures” to combat any new tariffs. USTR Jamieson Greer, meanwhile, told Fox Business vis-à-vis the Section 122 tariff, “We expect that level to remain in place…We don’t intend to escalate beyond that. We intend to really stick to the deal that we had before.”
In other China-related news, Reuters reports that the American aerospace and chips industries are still facing rare earth shortages. They also got a scoop from an anonymous senior Administration official that Chinese AI platform DeepSeek may have violated export controls by training on Nvidia’s Blackwell chip. It doesn’t sound like they’ve gotten any Nvidia H200s yet, though. Bloomberg looked at the estimated $112 billion in Chinese goods evasion with the U.S. The Chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, John Moolenaar (R-MI) called for Congress to revoke permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) for China over reported weapons sales to Iran. The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) launched investigations into Effects on the U.S. Economy of Revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations Status and Impact on U.S. Industry of China’s State Support and Pricing Practices in the Biotechnology Sector.
Quick Hits
- USTR is seeking comments on the design of a plurilateral Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals, with comments due by March 19
- Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) introduced S. 3915, the Specialty Crops Reporting on Opportunities and Promotion Act, which will make changes to the annual U.S. Specialty Crops Trade Issues Report
- The U.S. may send a diplomatic cable warning countries against adopting a global carbon tax on shipping and other measures
What’s the Dealies, Yo?
This is my initial stab at building a list of trade deals (specifically Frameworks, Agreements on Free Trade, and a few others with one-off nomenclatures). If I missed something, please let me know! I’ll add that the Council on Foreign Relations also has a tracker.
Country | Type | Date |
Argentina | 2/5/26 | |
Bangladesh | 2/9/26 | |
Cambodia | 10/26/25 | |
Ecuador | 11/13/25 | |
El Salvador | 1/29/26 | |
The EU | 8/21/25 | |
Guatemala | 1/30/26 | |
India | 2/6/26 | |
Indonesia | 2/19/26 | |
Japan | 9/4/25 | |
Malaysia | 10/26/25 | |
North Macedonia | 2/12/26 | |
South Korea | 11/13/25 | |
Switzerland/ Liechtenstein | 11/14/25 | |
Taiwan | 2/12/26 | |
Thailand | 10/26/25 | |
The Philippines | 7/22/25 | |
The UK | 6/16/25 | |
Vietnam | 10/26/25 |
Tarif-Fone
Ok this is my post-SCOTUS revision. If I missed something or got something wrong, please let me know. It’s not unpossible.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/4/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
1/15/26 | All countries | Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in certain applications | 25% | |
2/24/26 | All countries | 10% (but maybe 15% at some point) | ||
Coming Attractions | ||||
Status | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
Effective 10/1/25(?) | All countries (probably) | 100% unless construction ongoing | ||
Due 10/28/25 | All countries | Inclusions process for Section 232 copper | 50% | |
Report due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 1/26/26 (comments due 6/3/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Report due 5/10/26 (comments due 9/9/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Report due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices | TBD | |
Report due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 7/15/26 | Brazil | TBD | ||
Action due 10/24/26 (hearing 12/16/25) | China | TBD | ||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions | 7.5% or 25% | |
Suspended until 11/10/26 | Shipping companies | |||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | 100% | ||
Effective 1/1/27 | Nicaragua | 10% (15% on 1/1/28) | ||
Effective 1/1/27 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10%, 30%, or 50% depending on product | ||
6/23/27 | China | TBD (announced at least 30 days in advance) | ||
TBD | All countries (probably) | 100% | TBD (maybe Section 232) | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for timber and lumber | TBD | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for truck parts | TBD | |
TBD | Canada | 50% | TBD | |
