ON DECK:
Clearing the decks one last time heading into the weekend.
- Canada gets a letter as Trump threatens to raise universal rate to 15-20%
- Trump says he’ll talk to Lula at some point; Rubio says Trump-Xi summit likely; EU says ball is in U.S.’ court; sooo is there a Vietnam deal or what
- CIT grapples with IEEPA de minimis action
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
Oh Canada
I was waiting until the end of the day to see if any additional letters were sent, but it appears it was just Canada, which was released yesterday at 8:15pm. The letter threatens a 35% tariff, mentioning dairy tariffs and fentanyl specifically. A White House official clarifiedthat USMCA goods would continue to be exempt. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney posted on X that his country’s made good progress on fentanyl. It also appears that letter had the effect of pushing the July 21 deadline Canada had tried to impose on talks to August 1. And frankly, it would be surprising if that was partly a goal of the letter. The New York Times says talks have been productive despite the public turmoil, while an anonymous Canadian official told the Wall Street Journal that the Canadians were resigned to some level of tariffs, they’re just trying to keep it as low as possible.
And this isn’t letter-related, but I’m putting it here anyway. President Trump told NBC last night that he may raise the universal rate to 15% or 20%.
Country | Letter | Date | Truth Timestamp | 8/1/25 Rate | 8/1/25 vs. Annex I | |
Canada | 7/10/25 | 8:15pm | 35% | 25%** | +10% | |
Philippines | 7/9/25 | 11:36am | 20% | 17% | +3% | |
Brunei Darussalam | 7/9/25 | 11:37am | 25% | 24% | +1% | |
Moldova | 7/9/25 | 11:37am | 25% | 31% | -6% | |
Algeria | 7/9/25 | 11:38am | 30% | 30% | 0% | |
Iraq | 7/9/25 | 11:38am | 30% | 39% | -9% | |
Libya | 7/9/25 | 11:39am | 30% | 31% | -1% | |
Brazil | 7/9/25 | 4:17pm | 50% | 10%* | +40% | |
Sri Lanka | 7/9/25 | 6:30pm | 30% | 44% | -14% | |
Japan | 7/7/25 | 12:18pm | 25% | 24% | +1% | |
South Korea | 7/7/25 | 12:19pm | 25% | 25% | 0% | |
Malaysia | 7/7/25 | 2:14pm | 25% | 24% | +1% | |
Kazakhstan | 7/7/25 | 2:15pm | 25% | 27% | -2% | |
South Africa | 7/7/25 | 2:15pm | 30% | 30% | 0% | |
Laos | 7/7/25 | 2:16pm | 40% | 48% | -8% | |
Myanmar | 7/7/25 | 2:16pm | 40% | 44% | -4% | |
Tunisia | 7/7/25 | 4:30pm | 25% | 28% | -3% | |
Indonesia | 7/7/25 | 4:35pm | 32% | 32% | 0% | |
Bangladesh | 7/7/25 | 4:36pm | 35% | 37% | -2% | |
Serbia | 7/7/25 | 4:36pm | 35% | 37% | -2% | |
Cambodia | 7/7/25 | 4:37pm | 36% | 49% | -13% | |
Thailand | 7/7/25 | 4:38pm | 36% | 36% | 0% | |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 7/7/25 | 6:37pm | 30% | 35% | -5% |
*Subject to 10% IEEPA universal tariff, not an Annex I tariff
**Subject to a 25% IEEPA tariff on non-USMCA-compliant goods
Negotiation Update
- Brazil: President Donald Trump told reporters that he would speak to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva “at some point.” President Lula told local media, “We’ll first try to negotiate, but if there’s no negotiation, the law of reciprocity will be put into practice.” Politico reports that a BRICS meeting was what tipped things over the edge. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) panned the tariff letter in a statement.
- China: After meeting Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malaysia, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “the odds are high” that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping will meet. Minister Wang blasted the tariffs in a meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
- The EU: A European Commission spokesperson said that the ball is in America’s court on a deal: “Our priority is to achieve an agreement in principle with the U.S…We await some indication from our American counterparts that they are ready to do the same.” Autos and ag tariffs appear to be the biggest sticking points at the moment. The Commission also dropped a digital services tax.
- India: Bloomberg reports that the U.S. and India are working on an interim trade deal that lowers India’s rate below 20%.
- Indonesia: State Secretary Minister Prasetyo Hadi said, “There is a possibility” for direct talks between President Prawobo Subianto and President Trump.
- Japan: Despite U.S. insistence that no trade talks would take place when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others head to Osaka next week, there might be talks.
- Mexico: Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard was in DC this week.
- Philippines: President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. will visit DC July 20-22.
- Thailand: Thaksin Shinawatra, the de facto leader of Thailand’s ruling party, is taking on a larger role in the country’s trade response as leaders huddled to tweak its trade offer.
- Vietnam: Remember that 20% tariff rate in the deal? Politico reports that that was not part of the agreement – Vietnam was under the impression it’d be 11%, but President Trump Leeroy Jenkinsed it to 20%. Now, no one’s really sure if there’s an actual deal or not.
Court Update
- Judges on the Court of International Trade (CIT) asked a lot of questions as they wrestled with Dexter Axle v. Trump, which challenges the limiting of de minimis for China and Hong Kong under IEEPA
- 162 House Democrats and 29 Senate Democrats signed an amicus brief in Oregon, et al., v. Trump, et al., a challenge of the IEEPA reciprocal/universal tariffs brought by Attorneys General from 12 states
- The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals set oral arguments for September 17 in a pair of IEEPA challenges – California v. Trump and Webber, et al., v. Department of Homeland Security
Quick Hits
- Fiscal year customs duties collections topped $100 billion for the first time
- Amid renewed Houthi attacks, it doesn’t appear to be a given that the U.S. will take action unless U.S. ships are fired upon
- The WTO reform facilitator proposed splitting talks into three tracks: institutional concerns; level playing field issues; and “issues of our time” like climate change, economic security, and digital trade
