ON DECK:
- Trump mum on meetings with Sheinbaum, Carney but threatens 5% tariff on Mexico over water
- White House greenlights H200s to China, while Mexico ups tariffs on China (and others)
- U.S. officials rage over EU fines and regulatory actions; Modi speaks with Trump; Indonesia deal on the ropes; USTR announces Nicaragua 301 actions; Swiss government adopts negotiating mandate; Cambodia-Thailand clashes raise questions about deals; UK Trade Secretary visits U.S.
DISCLAIMER: The below is intended to inform, not to be construed as an official statement from the office of Rep. Yakym
Tidbits
The Beautiful Game in North America
Last we left things in North America, President Donald Trump, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney were going to be in DC for the World Cup draw. But we didn’t know how they’d meet (ie separately or altogether) or when. Turns out the three met privately together with no staff for about 45 minutes. Aaand that’s about all we know.
President Sheinbaum came away saying she has a “good relationship” with the U.S. and that she’s “convinced” the USMCA would stay in place. But on Monday, President Trump truthed a 5% tariff threat over the long-standing water treaty issue for which he’s leveled a tariff before. President Sheinbaum said Tuesday that she’d seek a solution that helps both sides, while adding that immediate water deliveries were not possible. Also of note, Mexico approved 50% tariffs on countries with which it doesn’t have a trade deal (which includes China). And a few last stories to flag on Mexico. There are protests and highway blockades that have disrupted border crossings for weeks; and Mexico attempted to rebut criticism of its implementation of labor commitments at a USMCA Labor Council meeting.
On the Canada front, President Trump was tight-lipped about the meeting with PM Carney. When asked about if he’d restart negotiations, he replied with his characteristic, “We’ll see.” The House Ways and Means Committee met with Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kristen Hillman, which came a day after she announced she’d be leaving the post in the new year. Former BlackRock exec Mark Wiseman is said to be the frontrunner to be her successor. Both she and U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra gave interviews to Canadian media about the state of USMCA. Ambassador Hillman said she didn’t think the U.S. would tear the agreement up, arguing, “There is an enormous foundation there that is trilateral.” Ambassador Hoekstra also said he didn’t think the U.S. wants to terminate, but he did caution, “All of these outcomes are possibilities.” A few more stories on the Canada beat. Local Canadian media reported on details of the steel deal that had been on the table before talks were cut off; President Trump accused Canada of dumping fertilizer in the U.S. market; and South Korean Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo voiced concerns with Canada over its new steel tariffs.
Finally, it’s worth flagging a few things on the review process. In a talk at the Atlantic Council, USTR Jamieson Greer wouldn’t close the door on bilateral deals: “Our economic relationship with Canada is very, very different than our economic relationship with Mexico. The labor situation’s different. The import-export profile is different. The rule of law is different. So it makes sense to talk about things separately with Canada and Mexico.” He added, “You could have a couple of protocols attached to the agreement, you could have a replacement. I mean, there are a lot of things that you could do. Now, there are going to be certain areas where a trilateral discussion could make sense. Rules of origin being one of them. Do we align on external trade policies to some extent? That could be another one. Critical minerals could be another area.” There’s also controversy in Congress over a reporting requirement in the USMCA review process, which USTR may deliver orally instead of written. But the law just says “report to Congress” – not how to report.
All that Smuggling for Nothing
Nvidia’s H200 chips have been a hot topic in recent weeks within the White House, within Congress, and with the White House vs. Congress. Aaand it only heated up this week as Semafor reported – and President Donald Trump confirmed via truth – that the U.S. would allow sales of the chips to China. The U.S. government will reportedly collect a 25% tariff when the chips arrive in the U.S. from Taiwan for a security review by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security. However, it’s not entirely clear if China will allow the H200s’ use or not, with reports suggesting the government will only allow limited access. The announcement also came as the Department of Justice announced charges against two businessmen for smuggling H200s and other advanced chips to China.
Elsewhere on the China beat, there was a lot of action by other countries vis-à-vis China that’s worth flagging. As mentioned before, Mexico approved 50% tariffs on countries with which it doesn’t have a trade deal, which includes China. China voiced its displeasure with the move. French President Emmanuel Macron told local media he threatened China with tariffs if the trade surplus with Europe doesn’t improve (more on that in a second), while China confirmed talks with the EU had restarted over a minimum price plan for Chinese EVs. The UK government is working to increase it’s authority to counter Chinese overcapacity via tariffs. And the Trump Administration announced a new “Pax Silica Declaration” with Australia, Israel, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea on critical minerals.
A few last bits of cleanup. I’d mentioned I’d have more about China’s trade surplus, so here we go. It hit $1 trillion for the first time ever, powered by a weak currency. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week’s call with Vice Premier He Lifeng was “constructive.” And China bought more soybeans, bringing its total purchases to 2.71 million tons – well short of the 12 million promised before the end of the year.
News from the Rest of the World
- Brazil: The Treasury Department removed Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes from its sanctions list.
- Cambodia: Renewed clashes with Thailand are raising questions about the stability of the trade deal with the U.S.
- The EU: The EU’s €120 million fined of X drew condemnation from USTR Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. But wait that’s not all. The EU also opened an antitrust investigation into Google and expanded its carbon border adjustment mechanism to derivative products (a little ironic given the Sturm und Drang over the inclusions). That said, it did also make it easier to comply with its methane emissions law. All this comes as an EU technical team was in DC this week. The U.S. is also watching the EU’s moves on aviation emissions.
- India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with President Donald Trump yesterday about bilateral relations and “regional and international developments.” With Deputy USTR Rick Switzer in India this week, USTR Greer told the Senate Appropriations Committee that India’s latest offers are “the best we’ve ever received.” Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized that Deputy USTR Switzer’s visit was not a formal negotiating round, but added that talks are “progressing well.” President Trump at a White House event accused India of dumping rice on the world market.
- Indonesia: The Financial Times reported this week that the deal with the U.S. is “at risk of collapse” due to Indonesia’s “backtracking” on commitments made in the framework deal. Follow-on reporting from Bloomberg suggests a provision giving the Indonesians heartburn allows the U.S. to terminate the deal if Indonesia signs an agreement that the U.S. determines jeopardizes its interests. Others include critical minerals cooperation, oil and gas, and provisions relating to third parties (aka China). And follow-on reporting from Reuters added the binding nature of the provisions is difficult too. A government spokesperson said, “Negotiations are still in progress, and it is normal to experience dynamics during the process.” USTR Greer was supposed to speak with Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto this week, and an Indonesian delegation led by Minister Airlangga will head to DC next week. Plans for a coal and gold export tax could also prove problematic within the framework’s call to remove export restrictions on industrial commodities.
- Japan: Reps. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), the Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Ami Bera (D-CA) sent a letter to President Trump urging tariff relief for Japan due to Chinese coercion.
- Nicaragua: USTR announced the results of the Nicaragua Section 301 investigation. A 10% tariff will be imposed in 2027 on imports not originating under the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), which increases to 15% in 2028. The Federal Register notice is here.
- South Korea: CBP issued a corrected CSMS message regarding implementation of the U.S.-Korea deal.
- Switzerland: Economy Minister Guy Parmelin was elected President for 2026. The government adopted a draft negotiating mandate and announced that the new 15% U.S. tariff rate would apply retroactively to November 14 (whenever that happens).
- Thailand: Amid renewed clashes with Cambodia, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said he would speak to President Trump today. PM Charnvirakul also dissolved parliament to set the stage for elections next year.
- The UK: Trade Secretary Peter Kyle met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He was also scheduled to meet Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer, as well as House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA).
Quick Hits
- The Senate Appropriations Committee’s Commerce, Justice, and Science Subcommittee held a hearing with USTR Jamieson Greer on Tuesday
- The House Ways and Means Committee passed H.R. 6500, the AGOA Extension Act, H.R. 6504, the Haiti Economic Lift Program Act, and H.R. 4930, a bill to enhance information sharing on suspected intellectual property violations in trade
- USTR is soliciting comments and will hold a hearing for its Special 301 review – comments are due by January 28 and the hearing will be February 18
- The Department of Agriculture announced $12 billion in aid to farmers impacted by retaliation
- USTR Jamieson Greer told an Atlantic Council event that the White House has held discussions about the “viability” of codifying some of the trade agreements, but he acknowledged that might be “challenging” to pass
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox Business that the IEEPA tariffs would be replaced “right away” should the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) rule against them
- Sen. Todd Young (R-IN), along with Sens. Chris Coons (D-DE), Jerry Moran (R-KS), and Michael Bennet (D-CO), introduced S. 3399, the Digital Trade Promotion Act, which would authorize the President (via USTR) to negotiate, enter, and enforce digital trade agreements with trusted partners, with a requirement for Congressional consultation and an for Congress option to block an agreement
Tarif-Fone
Tarif-Fone
Let me know if I missed anything. It’s not unpossible. IEEPA tariffs struck down by courts but in place pending appeal are italicized. There are lawsuits pending on some of the other IEEPA actions, but those have separate circumstances and arguments and may not be struck down themselves. I’m keeping the due date for the pharma 232 until we have something firmer.
Trade Actions in Effect | ||||
As of | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
2/4/25 | China | 10% (20% from 3/4/25-11/10/25; 10% from 2/4/25-3/3/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Canada | 35% (25% from 3/4/25-7/31/25) | ||
3/4/25 | Mexico | 25% | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25) | ||
3/12/25 | All countries | 50%; UK at 25% (25% for all countries from 3/12/25-6/4/25; was 10% prior to 3/12/25) | ||
4/2/25 | Countries importing Venezuelan oil (currently none) | 25% | ||
4/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/4/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
4/5/25 | Countries not on this list (minus Canada, China, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Belarus) | 10% | ||
4/9/25 | China | 10% (was 125% from 4/10/25-5/3/25; was 84% on 4/9/25) | ||
5/2/25 | China, Hong Kong | N/A | ||
5/3/25 | All countries | 25% | ||
6/23/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel derivatives (mostly appliances) | 50% (25% for UK) | |
8/1/25 | All countries | 50% | ||
8/6/25 | Brazil | Additional tariff (plus exemptions effective November 13) | 40% | |
8/7/25 | ||||
8/18/25 | All countries | Tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives | 50% (25% for UK) on steel or aluminum content; IEEPA rate applicable to country on non-steel or aluminum content | |
8/27/25 | India | 25% | ||
8/29/25 | All countries | N/A | ||
10/14/25 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10% or 25%, depending on product | ||
Effective 11/1/25 | All countries | 10% or 25%, depending on the product | ||
Coming Attractions | ||||
Status | Who | What | Rate | Authority |
Effective 10/1/25(?) | All countries (probably) | 100% unless construction ongoing | ||
Due 10/28/25 | All countries | Inclusions process for Section 232 copper | ||
Comments due 12/1/25 (hearing 12/16/25; action due 10/24/26) | China | TBD | ||
Due 12/10/25 (hearing was 3/11/25) | China | TBD | ||
Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 12/27/25 (comments due 5/7/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Effective 1/1/26 | All countries (minus EU, Japan, UK) | 10%, 30%, or 50% depending on product | ||
Due 1/20/26 (10/22/25 possible too) (comments due 5/16/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 1/26/26 (comments due 6/3/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 3/28/26 (comments due 8/6/25) | All countries (probably) | TBD | ||
Due 5/10/26 (comments due 9/9/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | Personal Protective Equipment, Medical Consumables, and Medical Equipment, Including Devices | TBD | |
Due 5/30/26 (comments due 10/17/25) | All countries | TBD | ||
Due 7/15/26 | Brazil | TBD | ||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | Certain Section 301 China tariff exclusions | 7.5% or 25% | |
Suspended until 11/10/26 | Shipping companies | |||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | 100% | ||
Suspended until 11/10/26 | China | Reciprocal tariff | 34% | |
Effective 1/1/27 | Nicaragua | 10% (15% on 1/1/28) | ||
TBD (no current deadline) | Canada | 25% | ||
TBD (no current deadline) | Mexico | 25% | ||
TBD | All countries (probably) | 100% | TBD (maybe Section 232) | |
TBD | Mexico | 30% | IEEPA | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for timber and lumber | TBD | |
TBD | All countries (probably) | Inclusions process for truck parts | TBD | |
